BMO Capital Markets analyst Ameet Thakkar downgraded Enphase Energy Inc ENPH to Market Perform from Outperform at a lowered price target of $148 from $175.
The analyst noted the U.S. residential solar demand trough seems deeper than expected, and the recovery timing is uncertain.
The analyst still projects ENPH to resume sequential revenue growth in Q2 FY24. However, Thakkar now forecasts FY24 revenues to be up only a modest 2% Y/Y. The analyst doesn't expect U.S. inverter demand to return to 2022 levels until 2025-2026.
Notably, the analyst estimates FY24 revenue (-13% below consensus), implying an 800 bps improvement in U.S. inverter market share (64%) vs. 2022.
The analyst also expects a 50% y/y increase in battery revenues and an additional 8% increase in international revenues in FY24.
Thakkar revised EPS estimates to $1.07 (from $1.04) for Q3 FY23 and $5.05 (from $5.07) for FY23.
Today, Enphase Energy disclosed the shipping commencement of IQ8 Microinverters in India to support newer high-powered solar modules.
Price Action: ENPH shares are trading higher by 2.95% at $127.46 on the last check Monday.
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