ManpowerGroup Bears The Brunt Of Macro Woes Amid Weakness In Europe, Analyst Says Tough To Recommend This Name

BMO Capital Markets analyst Jeffrey M. Silber reiterates the Market Perform rating on ManpowerGroup MAN, lowering the price target to $79 from $88.

The company reported third-quarter FY23 results where revenues from services declined 2.6% year-on-year to $4.676 billion, missing the analyst consensus of $4.70 billion. 

Revenues fell 5% at constant currency. 

Geographically, Northern Europe was the largest miss compared to prior forecast, with other countries relatively in line on a CC basis, the analyst writes.

Management indicated further weakening through 3Q23 and some European Manpower brands weakening into 4Q23, though the analyst adds that some of this may have been baked-in given intra-quarter macro data. 

In Q3, the analyst said Northern Europe's performance was most negative vs. guide alongside negative margins, given exposure to bench model countries.

Silber adds that MAN's valuation historically has been negatively impacted by its European exposure. Given greater recessionary fears in Europe, the analyst notes that it's tough to recommend this name.

Management noted it will not shy away from decisive actions to preserve margin though using a "fine-point pen vs. a broad brush," the analyst adds.

Given the uncertainties, the analyst lowers the FY23 revenue estimate to $18.851 billion from the previous estimate of $19.160 billion.

Silber projects FY23 EPS of $5.78, lower than the previous estimate of $5.92.

Price Action: MAN shares are trading higher by 1.45% to $70.51 on the last check Friday.