Defying Wall Street Skepticism, Gary Black Envisions Tesla's Cybertruck Driving 600,000 Deliveries By 2027

Tesla Inc TSLA investor and Future Fund Managing Partner, Gary Black, sees the newly delivered Cybertrucks taking the EV giant into an entirely new addressable market and deliveries outperforming Wall Street estimates.

What Happened: Black is optimistic about the Cybertruck. In 2024, Black sees Tesla delivering 100,000 vehicles and 250,000 in 2025, as predicted by Tesla CEO Elon Musk himself. By 2027, Tesla would deliver 600,000 vehicles, Black said.

Assuming an average selling price of $60,000 among other factors, Black estimates the sales from 2027 to enable 2027 incremental EPS of $1/share, $40/share in future stock price value, and $25/share in present stock price value.

The Wall Street estimates, however, are rather bleak in comparison. They expect Cybertruck deliveries to touch merely 270,000 or less than half of Black’s estimates in 2027.

Pickups account for nearly 3 million units every year in the U.S. and constitute about 20% of U.S. vehicles. The potential of the Cybertruck to expand into this segment is being underestimated, Black noted. This expanded market could further enable Tesla to release a smaller, less expensive Cybertruck version for export to Europe and Asia in a few years, he added.

Why It Matters: Black is not the only one foreseeing great demand for the Cybertruck.

During Tesla's third-quarter earnings call in October, Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed that over a million people had reserved the Cybertruck, highlighting unprecedented demand. However, Musk cautioned that achieving the targeted annual delivery of approximately 250,000 Cybertrucks might extend until 2025 due to production scaling challenges.

"I think we’ll probably reach it sometime in 2025. That’s my best guess," Musk then said.

Photo by Mike Mareen on Shutterstock

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