Tesla Bull Predicts Whopping 2.4M Deliveries In 2024, Defying Wall Street — Despite Musk Feeling Monthly Numbers Are 'Not Meaningful'

Tesla Inc TSLA investor and Future Fund Managing Partner Gary Black envisions the EV giant producing 2.4 million vehicles next year, citing robust November production figures from Shanghai.

What Happened: In a post on X, formerly Twitter, Black highlighted the record production of nearly 91,000 Tesla vehicles in Shanghai for November, which equates to an annualized figure of over a million. 

This surpasses the company’s third-quarter earnings projection for Shanghai’s annual capacity, which was stated at 950,000. 

Consequently, Black now anticipates Tesla manufacturing 2.4 million vehicles in 2024, exceeding Wall Street’s estimate of 2.2 million.

These calculations factor in the maximum capacity utilization of all Tesla’s manufacturing facilities across California, Shanghai, Berlin, and Texas, with an additional 125,000 Cybertrucks expected from Texas.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk, however, recently acknowledged that monthly production numbers are “not meaningful” because “cars are manufactured in batches to minimize complexity.”

“We have to switch many parts between the China, EU and other country regulations, not to mention RHD vs LHD (pointless complexity nightmare),” Musk had added.

Numbers Game: Tesla’s China wholesale sales for November reached 82,432 cars, showing a 14.3% increase in deliveries of China-made Model 3 and Model Y compared to the previous month, October.

For the current year, Tesla aims to deliver 1.8 million vehicles globally, having already surpassed 1.3 million units by the end of the third quarter.

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