Undervalued Cannabis Stock? This Company Could Reach A C$1B Valuation On The Back Of Pre-Roll Sales

With a nearly 50% share in infused pre-rolls, which constitute 70% of its sales, Decibel Cannabis Co. Inc. DB DBCCF is well-positioned in the market.

A recent cannabis equity research report by Zuanic & Associates offers an in-depth evaluation of the company's market standing, financial status, and future potential.

Market Leadership And Growth Prospects

Decibel Holdings leads in Canada's recreational cannabis market, especially with its popular pre-rolls and vapes among younger consumers, offering competitively priced infused pre-rolls through efficient automation and kief coating techniques.

Financial Health

The company has achieved seven consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow since the first quarter of 2022, a notable turnaround from the negative cash flows posted in 2020 and 2021.

Gross margins have improved significantly and EBITDA margins have risen to the mid-twenties, which is exceptional for a Canadian cannabis company.

“EBITDA margins rose from low to mid-20s, exceptional for a Canadian cannabis company. This is attributed to the company's expertise in infused pre-rolls and a refined vape strategy,” Pablo Zuanic, senior analyst noted.

“The product mix shifted significantly; in 1Q21, it was 47% vape, 21% flower, 19% concentrates, and 13% pre-rolls, while in 3Q23, over 90% infused pre-rolls made up 70% of sales, and vape 27%, as per Hifyre data.”

Valuation And Investment Outlook

Decibel Holdings trades at 0.8x EV/sales, which is considered compelling value. The stock is deemed undervalued compared to most of its direct LP peers.

“Decibel trades at 0.8x EV/sales, lower than most LP peers, except OGI and VFF. Compared on a similar basis, Tilray TLRY trades higher. With less trading volume on the TSX Ventures, Decibel might be undervalued, yet this presents an opportunity. The company, a leader in pre-rolls and vaping, is expanding exports and aiming for U.S. growth, boasting strong financials like 50% gross margins and positive free cash flow,” Zuanic wrote.

“Its future EV/Sales is projected at 0.2x by FY25, indicating significant potential upside, with the company unlikely to be acquired at this stage.”

Zuanic’s Bull Case Vs. Bear Case Thesis

In the bull case, Decibel's combined domestic and international value could reach $1 billion, 8x current levels.

Zuanic foresees the Canadian recreational market hitting C$7.5 billion by 2027, with Decibel potentially maintaining a 12-14% share, especially in pre-rolls and vapes.

“Using a 0.4x wholesale deflator, 25% EBITDA margins, and a 20x EBITDA multiple, the recreational segment alone could be worth C$1.95Bn. The export business, valued at 5-10x sales, could bring the export value to C$100Mn,” Zuanic wrote.

The bear case for Decibel centers on competition in infused pre-rolls and evolving vape technology, but the company's competitive pricing and innovative vape products, coupled with stable regulatory conditions, mitigate these risks.

Photo: AI-Generated Image.