Uber's Optimism, DoorDash's Challenges, & More: Analyst Offers Insights On Mobility Stocks For 2024

Wedbush analyst Scott Devitt provided the latest views on a few mobility stocks heading into 2024.

The analyst reaffirmed the rating on Uber Technologies Inc UBER at Outperform with a price target of $67.

Devitt expects catalysts such as strong international penetration, vertical expansion across grocery/retail, and cross-selling opportunities, underpinned by Uber One (~15mm members, 27%+ of bookings), to drive growth.

The analyst expects UBER's advertising to exceed a $1 billion run rate by 2024 and estimates FCF of nearly $5 billion and EBITDA margin expansion of ~320bps Y/Y in 2024.

The analyst expects gross booking of $159.6 billion (vs. 0.4% below consensus) and revenue of $42.3 billion (0.9% below consensus) in FY24.

Also, the analyst reiterated a Neutral rating on DoorDash Inc DASH and a price target of $92. 

Devitt sees a long-term domestic opportunity for DASH thanks to durable market share leadership and increasing margins in the core domestic restaurant business.

However, the analyst expects significant execution risk ahead amid highly competitive grocery/retail categories and international markets.

Devitt expects FY24 revenue of $9.996 billion (vs. consensus: $10.079 billion) and total orders 2% below analysts' estimates for the company.

On the other hand, the analyst lowered the price target for Maplebear Inc CART, popularly known as Instacart, to $26 (from $30) and maintained a Neutral rating.

Over time, CART's share will erode to partners, new entrants, and sophisticated players like Uber/DoorDash, who can bundle grocery delivery with adjacent categories, writes the analyst.

Amid increasing competition among grocers with their omnichannel offerings and in-house initiatives, Devitt expects to see a durable, blended use of CART and other third-party services as the likely outcome for the industry.

Devitt estimates revenue of $3.26 billion (same as in consensus) and orders of 0.4% below street view in FY24.

Meanhwile, the analyst raised the price target for Lyft Inc LYFT to $14 (from $12) and reaffirmed a Neutral rating. 

Devitt projects Lyft to benefit from favorable industry trends, such as rising adoption and frequency of ridesharing services in a market that expects to remain a long-term duopoly.

The analyst says that as a pure-play service, Lyft is competitively disadvantaged vs. its diversified peer and expects the company to be challenged to differentiate its products for riders and drivers in competing domestically against large-scale players.

The analyst estimates FY24 revenue of $4.90 billion (vs. 0.6% below street estimate) and total bookings of $15.4 billion.

Price Action: UBER shares are trading higher by 1.52% at $62.92, DASH by 0.67% at $100.53, and LYFT by 0.10% at $15.34, while CART shares are trading lower by 1.07% at $23.93 on the last check Wednesday.

Photo via UBER