"Top Pick for 2024": Analyst Bullish On Phathom Pharmaceuticals On Voquezna Launch In Erosive GERD, Projecting $55.6M In Sales

Needham analyst Joseph Stringer reiterated a Buy rating on Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. PHAT, raising the price target to $26 from $23.

"PHAT is our top pick for 2024", the analyst notes, adding it to the Needham Conviction List, replacing Vaxcyte, Inc. PCVX.

Per the analyst, PHAT shares will have a strong 2024 performance driven by the Voquezna launch in Erosive GERD (U.S. launch Dec 2023) and Voquezna U.S. approval and launch in Non-Erosive GERD (NERD) in 3Q24. 

The analyst models $55.6 million in total Voquezna sales in 2024, above the current consensus estimate of $46 million.

PHAT shares held up well in 2024 (+11%) versus the XBI (+7%) and S&P500 (+24%), and shares have significant upside from current levels as the Voquezna launch progresses and label expansion into NERD is achieved, the analyst adds.

The analyst adds- lead asset Voquezna (vonoprazan) has the potential to be a best-in-class acid blocker and generate ~$580 million U.S. peak sales in Erosive Esophagitis, $1.2 billion in Non-Erosive Reflex Disease, and $95 million in H. pylori infection.

The analyst models cash runway through 2026, which is sufficient through multiple value-driving events, including several quarters of the Erosive GERD and NERD (daily dosing) launch and the potential U.S. approval/initial launch in NERD (on-demand).

Price Action: PHAT shares are trading lower by 0.22% to $8.98 on the last check Friday.

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