Cytokinetics' Heart Drug Is A Multi-Billion Dollar Opportunity By 2032 Despite Novartis Setback: Analyst

Thursday, Novartis AG NVS decided to step back from pursuing the Cytokinetics Inc CYTK acquisition, dealing a blow to the potential deal with the promising heart drug developer. 

Analysts estimated Cytokinetics’ cardiomyopathy drug sales of up to $3.6 billion by 2032.

In December, Cytokinetics released topline results from the SEQUOIA-HCM Phase 3 trial of aficamten in patients with symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), showing that treatment with aficamten significantly improved exercise capacity compared to placebo.

HC Wainwright acknowledges that Cytokinetics is a potential acquisition target, but the company is continuing its regular operations, particularly focusing on advancing aficamten that could potentially be available in 2025 or earlier and has received Breakthrough Therapy designation from the FDA in December 2021. 

The analyst reiterates the Buy rating for CYTK stock.

The analyst had previously suggested that Novartis or AstraZeneca Plc AZN are likely suitors for a Cytokinetics acquisition.

Despite ongoing speculation and fluctuating stock prices, the fundamental belief is unchanged: aficamten could be a leading therapy for Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients compared to Bristol Myers Squibb Co’s BMY Camzyos (mavacamten), on its ability to have patients get to effective drug dose more quickly and stably.

The central discussion point surrounding aficamten is considering any Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) in its potential label. 

The argument is raised that the REMS discussion might not have occurred if Camzyos’ Black Box and REMS had not been introduced to the market first.

The company’s stance on business development scenarios, including potential commercialization, has been described as a ‘status-quo’ thesis. Despite potential mergers and acquisitions, aficamten is a distinctive drug compared to Camzyos.

Price Action: CYTK shares are up 0.84% at $85.66 on the last check Friday.