S&P 500 Scaled A Record 57 All-Time Highs In 2024: Here's What Analysts Think Is In Store This Year

The S&P 500 has hit 57 all-time highs in 2024, the fifth highest of any year in history. Dow has hit a record eight 1,000-point milestones and the “Magnificent 7” stocks have driven a 30% surge in the Nasdaq Composite index.

But what are the significant factors that will be shaping 2025? Here’s what analysts and industry players are forecasting.

Earnings Projections And Analyst Targets

Analysts are predicting a strong year for the market in 2025, driven by robust earnings growth and a favorable economic environment.

Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates, anticipates continued momentum, with earnings projected to "reaccelerate from 8.4% on the S&P 500 in Q3 to an estimated 12% in Q4. Q1 and Q2 also look strong and will be up over 10%."

Yogesh Kansal, co-founder and chief business officer at Appreciate, identified a "trinity of market forces" that will propel the market: 14% corporate profit growth, pro-growth policies under the incoming Trump administration, and the continued AI boom.

Analysts are also bullish on the S&P 500, with a median 2025 price target of 6,600, representing an 11% increase.

However, Julia Khandoshko, CEO of the broker Mind Money, cautioned that the index may not sustain its previous growth rate. "Next year is likely to be a time for strong investment ideas, especially in small and medium-cap segments," she said. "Overall market growth is quite possible, but a 20% increase in the S&P 500 looks unlikely."

High Valuations Raise Concerns?

Some analysts are expressing concerns about high valuations in the U.S. equity market.

Mario Georgiou, executive director and head of investments at InCred Global Wealth, noted that “optimistic analyst targets, stretched positioning and high valuations leave the market vulnerable to larger pullbacks in our view, should we see any of the rosy projections falling short of lofty expectations.”

“I think all investors agree that valuations are high and fully priced (Trailing P/E of 24+), leaving little room for positive equity returns to come from multiple expansions.”

However, Kansal attributed high valuations to improved corporate profitability. “Stock valuations are at their highest levels in more than three years, leaving greater potential for turbulence,” Kansal said. “However, the valuations have gone up because corporate America's profitability has greatly improved, with more than a third of companies posting margins of above 60%.”

Fed’s Stance

The Federal Reserve’s recent shift in monetary policy has sparked debate among analysts. While the Fed’s dot plot projects two more 25-basis-point cuts in the next year, falling short of market expectations, Navellier predicts four cuts. “The Fed can only look so far,” Navellier said.

“As soon as the ECB cuts key interest rates… Treasury yields will fall and allow the Fed to cut another two times in late 2025.”

Khandoshko emphasized the importance of trusting the regulator’s actions, acknowledging a less aggressive rate-cut path compared to previous expectations.

Georgiou anticipates a different scenario. “We see fed funds rate staying above 4%, with longer end rates rising further… mainly due to rising inflation driven by the effects of President-elect Donald Trump's policies.”

He warned of the risk of “sticky inflation” and a repeat of the 1970s, potentially forcing the Fed to halt or even reverse rate cuts.

Kansal believes the shift could have a stabilizing effect on the market. “While there may be some short-term volatility… the longer-term effect could be a more stable market with a continued focus on earnings growth and sector performance rather than reliance on monetary easing.”

Top Sectors To Watch In 2025

While artificial intelligence and big tech-dominated 2024, analysts are looking to other sectors for potential gains in the coming year.

Georgiou favors energy, citing “Undemanding valuations, shareholder friendliness (buybacks and dividend yields).” He added that the sector would be “most immune to tariffs given low imports subject to tariffs.”

Khandoshko emphasized the importance of pharmaceuticals and artificial intelligence, stating, “The market is likely to become a platform for major trends, where success will depend on the choice of industries rather than individual stocks.”

Kansal highlighted financials, materials, and consumer cyclicals. “Financials due to reduced regulation and lower capital requirements,” he said. “Materials, particularly those related to energy and infrastructure, could see a rebound if global economic activity accelerates. Consumer cyclicals should perform well if the U.S. economy maintains its momentum.”

Key Indices in 2024

While the S&P 500 index was up 27.30% on a year-to-date basis as of Dec. 26 close, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY has gained 27.23% in the same period.

Dow Jones Industrial Average and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust DIA were up 14.88% year-to-date as of the Dec. 26 close.

The Nasdaq 100 index which includes all the “Magnificent 7” stocks, unlike Dow, rose 31.58% year-to-date as Dec. 26 close. The ETF tracking the index, Fidelity NASDAQ Composite Index ETF ONEQ rose by 35.60% in the same period. Whereas, the Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ rose by 31.55% in 2024.

The smallcap index Russell 2000 was up 13.28% over the year, while iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM was up 13.11% in the same period as of the Dec. 26 close.

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