Is Affirm Poised for a Comeback? Analyst Highlights Opportunity in Recent Dip

Truist analyst Andrew W. Jeffrey reiterated a Buy rating on Affirm Holdings Inc AFRM with an unchanged price target of $60.

Affirm is down 19% year to date versus the S&P 500 SPX +3%, consistent with early-year weakness in growth names that rallied in 2023. The analyst noted the softness as an opportunity. 

The analyst noted that investors are sidelined by overwrought credit, liquidity, and BNPL durability concerns. 

Jeffrey expects Affirm’s holiday quarter to demonstrate Enterprise customer share gains, stable credit trends, better-than-expected revenue less transaction costs (RLTC), and strong liquidity. 

He cited strong Cyber Monday BNPL growth, good holiday momentum, and likely Affirm Card upside.

The analyst is staunch category Bulls, setting him apart from the Street. Jeffrey’s constructive outlook reflects that BNPL is a durable tender type at the intersection of debit and credit, which the company is positioning as a daily spend product. 

The analyst noted that BNPL can grow from <1% of total U.S. tender, based on Affirm’s $7 trillion TAM estimated, to something significantly more material, just as debit has in the last 20+ years. 

Jeffrey noted that Affirm would be a nearly $16 billion revenue company (5.5% yield), generating $4 billion+ of EBITDA. 

Moreover, the analyst said that BNPL could account for more than 7.5% of U.S. tender (not considering RoW potential) if it follows a trajectory similar to that of U.S. debit.

The analyst projects second-quarter revenue and EPS of $529.85 million (versus consensus of $518.75 million) and $(0.43) (versus consensus loss of $(0.72)).

Price Action: AFRM shares traded higher by 1.79% at $40.38 on the last check Friday.

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