McDonald's Downgrade 'Driven By Lack Of Earnings Catalysts,' 3 Analysts Discuss Q4 Print

Shares of McDonald's Corp MCD dipped on Monday after the fast-food company reported mixed results for its fourth quarter, citing weak sales due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The results came amid an exciting earnings season. Here are some key analyst takeaways from the release.

• Oppenheimer analyst Brian Bittner downgraded the rating on the stock from Outperform to Perform.
• Truist Securities analyst Jake Bartlett maintained a Buy rating, while lowering the price target from $345 to $340.
• Wedbush analyst Nick Setyan reiterated an Outperform rating and price target of $330.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

Oppenheimer: “Our downgrade thesis was driven by lack of earnings catalysts to '24/'25 estimates following a banner '23 when EPS revised upwards by double-digits,” Bittner wrote in the downgrade note.

“For 2024, MCD expects +3-4% SSS in US and IOM, vs Street's +3.4% and +4.0%, respectively,” the analyst stated. He added that the consensus estimates may be revised lower after the company’s fourth-quarter update.

Truist Securities: McDonald's delivered a fourth quarter earnings beat driven by “restaurant-level margin (RLM), SG&A and taxes, partially offset by SSS,” Bartlett said in a note. Although same-store sales in the IDL segment (Middle East) were under pressure, the company’s “underlying business remains resilient,” he added.

“Guidance for 'flat' RLM's in '24 appears conservative, especially given likely operating and labor productivity improvements,” the analyst further wrote.

Wedbush: “Company UL margin of 16.1% was higher than consensus of 15.5%, while franchised margin of 83.6% was below consensus of 84.3%,” Setyan said. He added that the company’s U.S. same-store sales are likely to continue to normalize this year, along with menu pricing.

“We believe MCD's ongoing menu (including value), technology, marketing, and CapEx investments render visibility into 2024 3-4% U.S./IOM SSS growth and operating margin in the ~46-47% range high even in a slowing global consumer spending environment,” the analyst further wrote.

MCD Price Action: Shares of McDonald's had declined by 1.43% to $281.88 at the time of publication on Tuesday.

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