Eli Lilly's Weight Loss Drug Tirzepatide Is Expanding Market Share, Analyst Outlines What Lies Ahead (CORRECTED)

Editor’s note: The headline and body of this story have been update to correct the name of Eli Lilly’s drug tirzepatide.

In support of expectations for Eli Lilly And Company LLY’s tirzepatide, BMO Capital Markets is tracking weekly Mounjaro, Zepbound, GLP-1 category TRx (total prescriptions), and NRx (new prescriptions). 

The analyst models $12.78 billion for the fiscal year 2024 tirzepatide revenues. 

Mounjaro, for diabetes, scripts grew to 313,019 TRx (+5.4% WoW); Zepbound, for weight loss, was 56,095 (+11.8% WoW). 

Overall, the incretin market grew +3.3% WoW, driven by Zepbound and Mounjaro growth. In line with commentary from the fourth quarter 2023 earnings, Mounjaro is back on the FDA shortage list for some doses into March 2024; accordingly, we expect WoW variability in the near term.

Soon after Eli Lilly’s fourth-quarter earnings, BMO Capital noted that the Wall Street estimates once again underestimated tirzepatide growth as demand continues to outpace supply. BMO raised the price target from $710 to $865. 

Mounjaro TRx: Total weekly scripts increased to 313,019 from 297,048 last week (+5.4% WoW), or 16.3M scripts annualized. 

Paid scripts include covered $25 copay card scripts, but virtually all are paid as the free access program has ended. 

Mounjaro NRx: New weekly scripts were up +4.6% WoW to 194,021 from 185,534. 

Zepbound TRx were again up meaningfully, to 56,095 from 50,183 last week (+11.8% WoW), following the YE23 launch. 

Incretin market trends: There was a +3.3% increase across the broader incretin market, with WoW increases for Ozempic (+1.5%), Mounjaro (+5.4%), Wegovy (+2.1%), Rybelsus (+1.8%), and Zepbound (+11.8%). 

BMO said if the growth rate of the first year following Ozempic’s approval adjusted by 85% is used, Mounjaro scripts grew faster than adjusted Ozempic growth. However, recent months have closed this gap.

Price Action: LLY shares are down 1.16% at $731.59 on the last check Monday.

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