Nvidia Shares 'Are Going Higher' In AI Growth Frenzy If Next 5 Years Stay The Course, Says Gene Munster: $180B Revenue By 2028

Gene Munster, a managing partner and co-founder at Deepwater Asset Management, underscored the long-term growth potential of Nvidia Corp. NVDA, something that he was on the lookout for in the chip giant’s fourth-quarter earnings call.

What Happened: In a post on X, formerly Twitter, on Wednesday, Munster shared his key takeaways from Nvidia’s earnings call, focusing on the company’s projected growth rates. He noted that Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang provided valuable context on the topic.

According to Huang, the global shift towards AI, powered largely by GPUs, will necessitate a $1 Trillion infrastructure build over the next five years, doubling the current pace. This translates to a market opportunity in the “hundreds of billions of dollars” for the compute side alone.

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"If the compute market is a $300B market in CY28, and $NVDA's share goes from around 80% today to 60% in five years, that means NVDA's revenue in CY28 will be $180B," Munster said, citing Huang’s comments.

Why It Matters: Nvidia’s recent fourth-quarter earnings report shows strong revenue growth, exceeding estimates and marking a 265% increase year-over-year. The company’s continued success in AI technologies has been a key driver of investor sentiment, as noted in a previous Benzinga report.

The semiconductor giant’s revenue for fiscal 2024 grew 126% to $60.9 billion. If Munster’s $180 billion take for CY28 proves to be accurate, the revenue upside from here is 195.6%.

The analyst said, “If the next five years loosely play out like that, shares of [Nvidia] are going higher.”

According to Munster, if Nvidia maintains its trajectory and captures even a reduced market share of 60% in five years, the company could achieve around 16% compound growth in CY25-CY28 – aligning with Wall Street’s growth expectations for CY25.

Price Action: On Wednesday, Nvidia shares shot up 9.2% to $736.93 in the after-hours trading after closing 2.85% lower at $674.72 in regular trading, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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