Tesla Bull Anticipates Lower Q1 Volume, But Does Not Rule Out Stock Rally If This Happens

As Tesla, Inc. NASDAQ: TSLA) prepares to release its first-quarter deliveries, expectations remain very muted. A fund manager, who is bullish on the electric vehicle maker, said on Sunday that he was bracing for a very weak number.

What Happened: Future Fund‘s Gary Black noted that number cruncher Troy Teslike estimated first-quarter deliveries of 409,000 units for Tesla, down from the year-ago number of 423,000 units. The fund manager said this could be Tesla’s first year-over-year sales decline since the COVID-19 in 2020. The predicament is despite the 15-20% price cuts, a $7,500 up-front EV credit and Cybertruck’s halo effect.

Wall Street’s consensus stood at 431,000 units, on a median basis, and 443,000 units, on average, Black said. “So TSLA could be facing both a narrative change that TSLA's volumes are declining and a miss,” he added.

See Also: Everything You Need To Know About Tesla Stock

Stock To Hold Up? Despite what is anticipated to be a weak report, Black said the stock would likely rally if first-quarter deliveries rise year-over-year even with a miss relative to the consensus estimate. He premised the deduction on the view that investors will look past the Fremont Model 3 Highland deliveries decline of 30,000 units as a one-time event.

Also, Tesla shares were down 29% year-to-date, and at the depressed level, the stock already reflected a first-quarter delivery miss, he said.

In a previous post on X, Black said the weakness will continue to the second quarter as EV adoption continues to slow. The fund manager sees the company struggling to report deliveries above the year-ago number of 466,000 units in the second quarter,  potentially leading the company to further reduce prices.

In premarket trading, Tesla shares rose 1.10% to $177.73, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Related Link: Tesla Hikes Model Y Prices In China Ahead Of Q1 Deliveries: Here’re The Updated Pricing In EV Maker’s Key Market

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