NVIDIA Q1 Earnings Preview: Analysts Anticipate Strong Results, Top AI Stock — 'Best Secular Idea In All Of Technology'

Semiconductor giant NVIDIA Corporation NVDA will report first-quarter financial results after market close Wednesday.

Here are the earnings estimates, what analysts are saying and key items to watch.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Nvidia to report first-quarter revenue of $24.60 billion, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company reported first-quarter revenue of $7.19 billion in the previous fiscal year. Nvidia has beaten analysts' revenue estimates in six straight quarters and nine of the last 10 quarters.

Analysts expect Nvidia to report earnings per share of $5.58 in the first quarter, compared to earnings per share of $1.09 in last year's first quarter. The company has beaten analysts' earnings per share estimates in five straight quarters and eight of the last 10 quarters.

Guidance from Nvidia calls for first quarter revenue to be $24.0 billion, plus or minus 2%.

Related Link: Nvidia Is Still ‘Stepping On The AI Accelerator’: 7 Analysts Size Up Q4 Results, Supply And Demand Dynamics

What Analysts Are Saying: While Nvidia is likely to report strong year-over-year growth, analysts see potential volatility ahead of the Blackwell transition.

Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya, who has a Buy rating and $1,100 price target, expects a beat and raise from Nvidia despite the volatility.

The analyst said expectations for Nvidia are $26 billion based on speaking with investors ahead of the quarterly report.

"Even if NVDA were to potentially deliver on these bullish expectations, the stock could still react unfavorably," Arya said.

The analyst said slowing demand, lower quarter-over-quarter growth and pricing pressure could be factors that bears are watching.

"On the other hand a favorable scenario could be perhaps NVDA reporting only modest FQ1 beat, but then guiding FQ2 up 10%+, while retaining favorable 76-77% GM (gross margins) as Blackwell ramp comes later in the year while Hopper cost structure remains favorable."

Stifel analyst Ruben Roy is expecting another strong quarter and outlook from Nvidia.

The analyst, who has a Buy rating, raised the price target from $910 to $1,085.

"Once again, a beat/raise is widely anticipated with investor focus likely to remain on medium-term sustainability of accelerating AI infrastructure investment," Roy said.

The analyst said supply chain checks indicate robust demand for existing Nvidia products ahead of the Blackwell launch.

"NVDA remains our top pick relative to the AI infrastructure investment theme."

The analyst said strength in the Data Center segment will drive "significant year-over-year growth" in coming quarters, leading to estimate increases.

"The scaling of recent large-scale models coupled with NVDA's Blackwell ramp in 2025 suggests to us that we are likely to see meaningful growth well into next year."

The analyst estimates Nvidia’s total addressable market to reach $100 billion by 2025, potentially growing to $1 trillion in the future.

A beat and raise from Nvidia is also anticipated by Rosenblatt analyst Hans Mosesmann.

The analyst, who has a Buy rating and $1,400 price target, said the beat and raise might be lower than the previous quarter due to supply shortages.

"We do not subscribe to the air-pocket theory in the Hopper to Blackwell transition for the July quarter guide as the transition to B100 is scheduled for later in 2024," Mosesmann said.

The analyst said Nvidia could maintain or increase its market share due to its platform and software stack.

"We also anticipate that Blackwell will be completely sold out, at least for a year."

Mosesmann said shares of Nvidia could be volatile ahead of and after the first-quarter earnings report.

"We expect volatility into this week's print but are nonetheless positively biased on a story that is increasingly resonating with the best secular idea in all of technology."

Here are other analyst ratings and price targets for Nvidia in the month of May.

• Barclays: Overweight rating, raised price target from $850 to $1,100
• Susquehanna: Positive rating, raised price target from $910 to $1,085
• Baird: Outperform rating, raised price target from $1,050 to $1,200
• Oppenheimer: Outperform rating, $1,100 price target
• Wedbush: Outperform rating, $1,000 price target
• Wells Fargo: Overweight rating, raised price target from $970 to $1,150
• Jefferies: Buy rating, raised price target from $780 to $1,200
• HSBC: Buy rating, raised price target from $1,050 to $1,350
• Goldman Sachs: Buy rating, raised price target from $1,000 to $1,100

NVDA Price Action: Nvidia shares trade at $947.80 versus a 52-week trading range of $298.06 to $974.00. Nvidia stock is up 91% year-to-date in 2024 and up over 210% in the last year.

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