Newly-Listed Psoriasis-Focused Alumis Attracts Analysts' Attention With Promising Lead Program And Modest Valuation

Guggenheim Partners initiated coverage on Alumis Inc. ALMS, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing oral therapies for immune-mediated diseases.

The investment thesis centers around a positive view of its lead asset ESK-001, a next-gen TYK2 inhibitor currently in development for plaque psoriasis and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

The company’s management expects to initiate a Phase 3 trial for plaque psoriasis in the second half of 2024, and data from the SLE study are expected in 2026.

The analyst writes that favorable safety (with no risk of JAK class black box warning) and potential BIC efficacy make ESK-001 a potentially competitive alternative to available oral therapies in moderate, severe plaque psoriasis, where according to Guggenheim’s KOLs, there is a large unmet need for more effective orals that require no lab monitoring.

Among orals in development, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited’s TAK TAK-279, Bristol-Myers Squibb & Co’s BMY BMS-322, and Johnson & Johnson’s JNJ JNJ-2113 are ESK-001’s direct competitors in advanced clinical stage.

The Guggenheim analyst initiates with a Buy rating, with a price target of $32.

Cantor Fitzgerald also initiated coverage of Alumis with an Overweight rating. It writes that the company’s ESK-001 and brain-penetrant TYK2 inhibitor A-005 (in Phase 1) have over $1 billion in commercial potential in relation to Alumis’ modest valuation, with an enterprise value of around $200 million.

Cantor expects shares to substantially outperform the market as these candidates advance.

Just a month ago, Alumis priced its initial public offering at $16.00 per share and a concurrent private placement, raising $250 million in gross proceeds.

The analyst notes that despite initial frustrations, Alumis’ market debut is now in the past. The company has the necessary resources to progress its pipeline and the chance to reshape its story moving forward.

“Meanwhile, Alumis’ share price provides what we think is a very attractive entry point for investors willing to take a fresh look,” the Cantor analyst writes.

Price Action: ALMS stock is up 0.48% at $12.66 at last check Wednesday.

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