Boston Beer Company: Hard Mountain Dew Is Still A Catalyst, 3 Analysts Cut Forecasts After Q2 Results

Shares of Boston Beer Company Inc SAM were climbing in early trading on Friday, after the company reported its second-quarter results.

The results came amid an exciting earnings season. Here are some key analyst takeaways.

• Goldman Sachs analyst Bonnie Herzog reiterated a Sell rating, while reducing the price target from $210 to $230.
• RBC Capital Markets analyst Nik Modi maintained a Sector Perform rating, while cutting the price target from $332 to $318.
• Piper Sandler analyst Michael Lavery reaffirmed an Overweight rating, while slashing the price target from $344 to $325.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

Goldman Sachs: Boston Beer Company reported its quarterly earnings at $4.39 per share, significantly missing the consensus of $5.01 per share, due to softer-than-expected depletions and shipments as well as ongoing costs that resulted in disappointing gross margins, Herzog said in a note.

Management lowered the high end of their full-year depletion and shipment guidance ranges to reflect low-single-digit declines in both, the analyst stated. "While mgmt sounded confident that their wholesaler partners need more inventory to restore service levels, we have some concern, especially considering SAM's depletions were down -2% YTD thru June, suggesting distributors may want to structurally carry less inventory to meet slowing demand," he further wrote.

RBC Capital Markets: "As expected, category pressures were too much to overcome in the near term and resulted in a more muted volume outlook for the year," Modi said. He added, however, that management suggested a bottoming in April.

"Despite the topline pressure, SAM was able to maintain gross margin and EPS guidance in part due to improvements in productivity initiatives across procurement savings, waste and network optimization, and brewery performance," the analyst wrote. However, the gross margin guidance will likely be viewed as "less prudent relative to last quarter," he further wrote.

Piper Sandler: Boston Beer revenue was roughly in-line with expectations. EBIT margins came in lower due to higher costs, even before marketing spending increases in the back half of 2-24, Lavery said.

"We see upside to SAM’s gross margin as it further brings production in-house," he added.

Hard Mountain Dew started transitioning to the company's distributor network in May, "with a full transition to new states likely lasting into early 2025," the analyst stated. "We still expect Hard Mtn Dew can be a catalyst in 2025, with shipments to some big new states expected to give a volume boost in 4Q24 ahead of early 2025 sales.”

SAM Price Action: Shares of Boston Beer Company had risen by 4.93% to $283.87 at the time of publication on Friday.

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