Intel Analyst Flags AMD Competition as Key Challenge, Predicts Modest Growth For Q2

Rosenblatt analyst Hans Mosesmann maintained a Sell rating on Intel Corp INTC with a price target of $17.

Mosesmann expects Intel to deliver inline fiscal 2024 second-quarter earnings based on flat to up sales growth, stabilizing PC dynamics, and a bottoming in the Altera, Mobileye, and NEX segments.

The analyst expects the management to issue a modest growth guidance for the third quarter, likely below his mid-to-high single-digit expectation of weaker server Sierra Forrest and Granite Rapids ramps as Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD continues to gain share on EPYC4 and newer EPYC5 road maps.

Mosesmann projected a second-quarter revenue of $13 billion, which aligns with the consensus. Guidance for the quarter is for $12.5 billion – $13.5 billion. The analyst and consensus expect an adjusted gross margin of 43.5% and 42.7%, respectively. Guidance for the June quarter was for 43.5%.

Mosesmann expects an adjusted EPS of $0.10, which aligns with guidance and consensus.

For the September quarter, Mosesmann projected revenue of $14 billion vs. the consensus of $14.4 billion. The analyst’s estimate for adjusted gross margin is 44.8%, slightly lower than the consensus estimate of 46.2%. Mosesmann’s adjusted EPS is $0.14, below the consensus of $0.32.

For fiscal 2024, the analyst projected revenue of $54.7 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.64, below the consensus of $56 billion and $1.11.

For fiscal 2025, Mosesmann projected revenue of $61 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.20, below the consensus of $62.8 billion billion and $1.92.

For fiscal 2026, the analyst projected revenue of $61 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.05.

Intel stock lost over 13% in the last 12 months. Investors can gain exposure to the stock through Vanguard Value ETF VTV and Vanguard Information Tech ETF VGT.

Price Action: INTC shares traded lower by 1.28% at $30.95 at last check Monday.

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