Moderna Stock Trading Lower On Dismal Guidance, Analysts Cuts Price Targets Noting Competitive Pressure From GSK, Pfizer

On Thursday, Moderna Inc MRNA lowered its 2024 sales guidance due to weaker demand for its COVID-19 vaccines.

Moderna now projects 2024 net sales of between $3 billion and $3.5 billion from its respiratory franchise versus previous guidance of about $4 billion, citing low EU sales in 2024, potential revenue deferrals for certain international sales into 2025, and an increasingly competitive environment for respiratory vaccines in the U.S.

Goldman Sachs highlights that the management discussed competitive pressure across both the COVID and RSV vaccines, noting that larger competitors, namely Pfizer Inc PFE and GSK Plc GSK, have leverage from existing product portfolios and can engage in activities such as bundling and co-marketing.

Regarding visibility into demand for mRESVIA, Moderna’s RSV vaccine, in the second half, management noted some signed contracts where the vaccine has been shipped and some contracts that are being finalized.

The analyst has lowered the price target to $178 from $204, with a Buy rating.

RBC Capital Markets has decreased the price target to $125 from $160 to reflect the new guide and the outlook for the respiratory franchise.

RBC highlights that although there was no material update on individualized neoantigen therapy (INT), accelerated approval remains a possibility.

Moderna and Merck & Co Inc MRK announced additional 3-year data for mRNA-4157 in combination with Keytruda (pembrolizumab), demonstrating sustained improvement in recurrence-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival versus Keytruda for high-risk stage III/IV melanoma following complete resection. 

Guggenheim Securities writes that in their view inroads on the EU tender appeared increasingly at risk given the approaching vaccine season, the revised guidance suggests a considerable portion embedded in the original guidance. The analyst keeps a Neutral rating on Moderna.

Piper Sandler reiterates its Overweight rating while lowering the price target to $157 from $214 by reducing SpikeVax and mRESVIA values.

Barclays maintains Moderna with an Overweight, lowering the price target from $168 to $155.

Needham reiterates Moderna with a Hold.

Price Action: MRNA stock is down 8.52% at $86.15 at last check Friday.

Photo by Lutsenko_Oleksandr on Shutterstock

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