e.l.f. Beauty To Gain From Bold Expansion Efforts Internationally - Analysts Weigh In

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. ELF reported first-quarter results on Thursday.

 e.l.f. Beauty raised its fiscal year outlook to reflect an expected 25% – 27% year-over-year increase in net sales, as compared to an expected 20% – 22% increase previously.

The company now sees full-year sales in a range of $1.28 billion to $1.3 billion.

Analysts covering the multi-brand beauty company provided their takes:

• Stifel analyst Mark S. Astrachan reiterated a Hold rating on the company, with a price forecast of $161.
• Truist Securities analyst Bill Chappell reiterated a Buy rating on e.l.f., with a price forecast of $210.
• Oppenheimer analyst Rupesh Parikh reiterated a Perform rating on the stock.
• Piper Sandler analyst Korinne Wolfmeyer reiterated an Overweight rating on e.l.f., raising the price forecast to $260 from $258.

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Stifel: The analyst perceives limited upside to historical guidance due to weaker U.S. beauty category growth and slower market share gains for E.l.f.

The updated adjusted EBITDA guidance, however, still anticipates stronger growth, considering the timing of media spending.

The gross margin for 2025 is now expected to increase by 20 basis points year-over-year (up from the previous estimate of 10 basis points), thanks to strong performance in the first quarter of 2025.

Sales growth is expected to be fueled by ongoing market share gains, supported by increased investment, innovation, expanded shelf space, digital initiatives, and international expansion.

The analyst forecasts that EBITDA growth will slightly surpass sales over the next 2-3 years due to cost leverage, though continued high marketing expenses will offset this.

Astrachan raised FY25 EPS estimate to $2.91 from $2.89.

Truist Securities: According to Bill Chappell, e.l.f. shares have declined over the past month due to worries about a slowing consumer market and possible future tariffs.

The cautious guidance might lead to short-term stock weakness, which could present a buying opportunity.

The analyst notes the company is well-positioned to excel, thanks to its key products and international expansion, in a category that is more stable than anticipated.

Piper Sandler: Korinne Wolfmeyer writes that the company has sufficient positive revenue developments to justify upward estimate revisions and enough temporary factors to leverage drivers to mitigate any downside risk to margins.

The analyst also highlights the company’s solid execution in domestic markets and further international expansion opportunities.

The company is advancing more rapidly than expected with new expansions, now selling in Australia and entering Germany.

These are the fourth and fifth new markets the management has entered within approximately a 12-month period, Wolfmeyer adds.

The analyst raised FY25 EPS estimate to $3.41 from $3.36.

Oppenheimer: The analyst notes that e.l.f.’s highly conservative second-quarter revenue forecast could negatively impact the stock. Despite this, the management team continues to excel, and the analyst expects its substantial market share gains to continue.

The analyst lowered FY25 EPS estimates to $4.40 from $4.45.

Price Action: ELF shares are trading lower by 15.2% to $159.44 at last check Friday.

Photo via Wikimedia Commons

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