Apple Analysts Mixed After Glowtime Event: iPhone 16 Could 'Drive Upgrades,' But 'Next Year Will Be Better'

Apple Inc AAPL analysts saw limited details on Apple Intelligence and came away mostly mixed or negative from the Glowtime event held Monday.

The Apple Analysts: Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan reiterated a Buy rating with a $256 price target.

Needham analyst Laura Martin reiterated a Buy rating with a $260 price target.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives reiterated an Outperform rating and raised the price target from $285 to $300.

Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang reiterated an Outperform rating with a $250 price target.

Piper Sandler analyst Matt Farrell maintained a Neutral rating with a $225 price target.

KeyBanc analyst Brandon Nispel maintained a Sector Weight rating with no price target.

Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring reiterated an Overweight rating with a $273 price target.

JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee reiterated an Overweight rating with a $265 price target.

Bank of America on AAPL: Healthcare features, safety and convenience were highlights from Apple's event for Mohan.

"Devices will drive upgrades and bring new users to ecosystem," Mohan said.

The analyst said the new devices and increased functionality could help Apple expand its reach.

"Pricing remained unchanged and may help Apple sell more phones and also help in getting more users to upgrade in order to take advantage of Apple Intelligence."

Needham on AAPL: The Apple event may lead to consumers waiting to buy a new iPhone, Martin said in a new investor note.

"With lots of words like ‘later this year' and ‘early next year,' the core AAPL message for iPhone 16 was: Next year will be better," Martin said.

While Martin doesn't see Apple showing compelling reasons for consumers to buy new iPhones, the new Apple Watch and AirPod updates could see the opposite.

"We believe that the Watch and AirPod health-related updates (sleep apnea, hearing aids, etc.) will drive new sales of those devices, which should lock consumer into the AAPL ecosystem while they await a better iPhone."

Wedbush on AAPL: The iPhone 16 could be the "start of an AI-driven era," Ives said in a new investor note.

"Apple launched iPhone 16 which we believe will be the most successful iPhone unit launch in its history as Apple Intelligence will be the launching pad for the consumer AI Revolution globally," Ives said.

The analyst said the careful rollout of Apple Intelligence could be the right strategy to help with a "major upgrade opportunity" for Apple's users.

"We expect more partnerships on the China front for LLM around Baidu over the coming months that will fill in a missing piece of the AI puzzle in the key China market."

Ives said the new iPhones and the new ways for consumers to interact with their smartphones will help with iPhone growth for Apple in the next 12 to 18 months. Ives said the iPhone upgrade cycle could push Apple to a $4 trillion market capitalization.

Oppenheimer on AAPL: Upgrades to the iPhone may be more incremental than upgrades for accessories and other products, Yang said in a new investor note.

"We came away more impressed with meaningful upgrades coming to accessories than iPhones this year," Yang said. "Both Apple Watch and AirPods are getting hardware redesigns that dramatically improve user experience."

The analyst said iPhone users upgrading their smartphones could accelerate more in calendar year 2025 with Apple Intelligence fully rolled out around the world.

Piper Sandler on AAPL: The Apple Glowtime event went largely as expected, Farrell said in a new investor note.

The analyst said camera control, stable pricing and health-focused features were all highlights for Apple products during the event.

Negatives from the event could be the staggered Apple Intelligence roll-out and limited education on Apple Intelligence use cases.

"Our stance remains unchanged, with the stock already pricing in the ‘super cycle' excitement at current levels," Farrell said.

The analyst said pricing being consistent with previous iPhone upgrades could help with discretionary spending showing signs of weakness.

KeyBanc on AAPL: Apple's Glowtime event provided updates on devices and new features, but went off with limited surprises, Nispel said.

"We see the September event as a modest negative for AAPL given a lack of positive surprises and slightly less aggressive promotions from Carriers," Nispel said.

The analyst said announcements and pricing was in line with expectations.

Apple may rely on order volume growth and see less benefits from average sale prices, the analyst added.

For Apple's earnings results, the analyst sees the company having a benefit in the fourth quarter with 12.5% more time for pre-orders and 22% more time for shipping versus the prior year.

Morgan Stanley on AAPL: After Apple's Glowtime event, attention turns to pre-orders and lead times for the iPhone 16, Woodring said in a new investor note.

"Apple Intelligence driven multi-year device upgrade thesis intact," Woodring said. "Apple Intelligence language expansion timing the most important announcement today."

The analyst is lowering average sale prices for the iPhone with Apple not eliminating low-end iPhone 16s as some expected.

JPMorgan on AAPL: A larger focus on iPhone features outside of just Apple Intelligence was the key highlight from the event for Chatterjee.

The analyst said the key takeaways are Apple Intelligence being rolled out in October, upgrades to camera capabilities and pricing.

"Pricing being maintained across the board helps expand the addressable demographic and compares favorably to competing AI smartphones in the market, which have typically boasted price increases with introduction of AI features," Chatterjee said.

The analyst said the next catalyst for Apple will be order momentum for the iPhone 16 with the Glowtime event failing to be a positive catalyst.

AAPL Price Action: Apple stock is down 1.12% to $218.44 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $164.08 to $237.23. Apple stock is up 18% year-to-date in 2024.

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Photo: Apple iPhone 16 with Apple Intelligence, courtesy Apple