Visa Stock Has Near-Term 'Overhang' From DOJ Antitrust Lawsuit: Analyst Picks 3 Stocks To Benefit

Payments company Visa Inc V was hit with an antitrust lawsuit by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) Tuesday that analysts say could take years to sort out and will likely hurt shares in the short term.

What Happened: The DOJ alleged Visa used anticompetitive practices in the debit network market in a lawsuit filed in U.S. District Court in New York on Tuesday.

Visa controls over 60% of the U.S. debit transactions market, according to the lawsuit. The lawsuit alleged Visa illegally operates a monopoly by using exclusionary agreements with banks and merchants to prevent competition in the market.

"We allege that Visa has unlawfully amassed the power to extract fees that far exceed what it could charge in a competitive market," Attorney General Merrick B. Garland said.

Garland said merchants and banks pass these costs on to consumers.

"As a result, Visa's unlawful conduct affects not just the price of one thing — but the price of nearly everything."

The DOJ said it is seeking to "restore competition" to the market.

As Visa stock falls, analysts are weighing in with short-term and long-term repercussions for the company.

Goldman Sachs on Visa: Anti-competitive allegations against Visa were "broader in scope" than reported allegations from the Department of Justice were expected to be, Goldman Sachs analyst Will Nance said in a new investor note.

The analyst said the lawsuit accused Visa of using incentive pricing, limiting the ability of alternative networks, threatening to terminate partnerships and entering into agreements with financial incentives to partners.

"The DOJ alleges that through these practices, Visa has abused its monopolistic power to maintain high fees on debit transactions, and limit competition and innovation in debt markets," Nance said.

The analyst has a Buy rating on Visa with a $317 price target.

The DOJ is seeking to restore a competitive market to the space, the analyst added.

"We believe this litigation is likely to be an overhang for near-term performance, particularly as the scope of the lawsuit is broader than we expected."

The analyst said the financial implications could be a 1.8% impact on earnings per share for every 5% loss in U.S. debit market share.

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JPMorgan on Visa: The DOJ antitrust lawsuit against Visa could take years to be completed, and will likely hurt the stock in the near-term, JPMorgan analyst Tien-tsin Huang said.

"The DOJ is arguing that Visa's contracts and pricing structure prevent other networks (including Mastercard, FI's STAR/Accel, FIS's NYCE, etc.) as well as ‘fintech debit networks' (Apple, Block and PayPal) from competing on a level playing field," Huang said.

The analyst said the lawsuit is complicated but the items covered aren't too surprising as they are common practices in the payments sector.

"We suspect a resolution here will be multiple years in the making given historical precedent but wouldn't be surprised to see some ongoing weight on Visa's shares near-term given, on the margin, regulatory attention likely pressure pricing power."

The analyst has an Overweight rating on Visa with a $320 price target.

Huang said the lawsuit could provide overhang benefits to Mastercard Inc MA, Fiserv Inc FI and Fidelity National Information Services FIS.

"We reiterate our preference for top-pick Mastercard, but note that Vis has effectively navigated various regulatory headwinds both domestically and overseas."

The analyst said Fiserve and Fidelity National Information Services could benefit from measures taken in the debit market, while Mastercard could benefit given its lower market share in debit (25% vs. Visa's 60%) and actions taken to make the two companies more competitive.

"Visa being the largest domestic payment company, sitting at the center of transactions between multiple parties means it must delicately balance these dynamics while not overreaching competitively – a challenging task, and it falls to the court to decide what side of the line Visa falls on in this case."

V Price Action: Visa stock is down 1.31% to $269.22 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $227.78 to $293.07. Visa stock is up 13% year-to-date in 2024.

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