Amgen's Rocatinlimab Has Commercial Potential Despite Competitive Landscape, Says Goldman Sachs

In an investor update on Tuesday, Amgen Inc AMGN released data from Phase 3 trials of rocatinlimab and Uplizna (inebilizumab).

HORIZON Phase 3 trial evaluated rocatinlimab for atopic dermatitis (eczema) in 726 patients.

Amgen reported that rocatinlimab outperformed a placebo regarding the severity and extent of the disease.

Amgen stock is trading lower as the data seemed to be below expectations.

Goldman Sachs notes that although the Phase 3 efficacy data for rocatinlimab is less compelling compared to Dupixent, the analyst still sees strong commercial potential for the drug (if approved).

This is due to its favorable safety and tolerability profile, convenient dosing schedule, and the substantial total addressable market for atopic dermatitis, even with the high level of competition in the space, including Eli Lilly And Co’s LLY Ebglyss (lebrikizumab) and Sanofi SA’s SNY amlitelimab.

The analysts view the recent updates as encouraging but note that the stock still doesn’t fully reflect the potential value of either asset.

The firm models peak sales for rocatinlimab in atopic dermatitis to reach around $4 billion by 2035 (with a 60% probability of success).

While not included in the model, the analyst sees a significant opportunity for Uplizna in generalized myasthenia gravis, estimating potential sales of about $2 billion.

Goldman Sachs maintains the Buy rating and a price target of $370.

Looking ahead, attention shifts to Amgen’s Phase 2 obesity data expected by the end of the year, where positive outcomes could lead to a stock re-rating to account for revenue potential and ease concerns about the upcoming loss of exclusivity in the latter half of the decade.

Earlier this year, Amgen had the data from animal and early-stage human trials of its experimental obesity drug AMG 133 (maridebart cafraglutide) published in Nature Metabolism.

The Journal confirmed the GIPR antagonist and GLP-1R agonist activities in cell-based systems and reported the ability of AMG 133 to reduce body weight and improve metabolic markers in male obese mice and cynomolgus monkeys. 

Price Action: AMGN stock is down 4.67% at $315.47 at last check Wednesday.

Photo via Shutterstock

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