US New Vehicle Sales In Q3 Could Remain Flat Or Fall Marginally, Say Experts, Led By Declines At GM, Toyota, Stellantis

Automotive consultant Cox Automotive sees new vehicle sales dip by about 2% in the U.S. in the third quarter while JD Power expects it to remain flat as compared to the third quarter of 2023.

What Happened: Cox said last week that it expects 3,897,112 vehicles to be sold, 2% lower than the third quarter of last year when 3,979,779 new vehicles were sold. The drop in sales, Cox said, will be spurred by sales decline at General Motors Co. GM, Toyota Motor, and Stellantis STLA.

Cox, however, expects General Motors to lead sales in the country with 648,043 vehicles sold, seconded by Japanese automaker Toyota Motor who Cox expects to sell 547,460 vehicles. Honda, Cox said, will see sales rise by 10.7% to 375,281 units, making it the fifth best-selling brand in the country.

Market research firm JD Power, meanwhile, expects new vehicle sales to touch 3,882,600 units in the quarter, marking a 0.2% increase from the corresponding period last year.

"September sales volumes will be lower than a year ago because of a calendar quirk that saw the Labor Day holiday weekend fall into the August sales month. This boosted August's sales but will diminish September's sales from a year ago,” Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at JD Power, said.

EVs In Q3: With regard to EVs, discounted transaction price balanced lack of interest, JD Power vice president of electric vehicle practice Elizabeth Krear said.

“The contradiction of lower interest and higher sales will lead many to ask, ‘How can that be?' The answer is simple: incredibly discounted transaction prices. Buyers are always looking for a deal, and what they're paying now for an EV—thanks in part to federal incentives—is less than the comparable segment average price in both mass market and premium segments," Krear said.

Cox now expects Tesla Inc.’s sales in the U.S. to be 152,829 for the third quarter, 2.4% lower than the corresponding quarter of 2023.

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