Tesla's 'Cybercabs' Could Be A Potential Ride-Sharing Disruptor, Says Analyst: Here's What Investors Can Expect At Oct 10 Robotaxi Event

Tesla Inc. TSLA will host its Robotaxi event on Oct. 10, investors are skittish about autonomous ride-share services, said Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas in a note released on Wednesday.

The Tesla Analyst: Jonas has an Overweight rating and a $310 price target for Tesla shares.

The Tesla Thesis: The widespread belief is that Tesla will show attendees a cybercab demonstration on a closed course and give rides in, said Jonas. The analyst expects the company to say the potential commercial launch could be in late 2025 or 2026.

Tesla will likely move forward with a dual approach with respect to autonomous ridesharing – a fully app-based “cybercab” and a supervised autonomous/FSD ride-share service, the analyst said. The second approach is the one that has the greatest room to surprise investors, at least in the near term, he said.

The analyst modeled that the vast majority of rides and miles traveled through 2030 and into the early 2030s will be based on the FSD/supervised ride-share category. With this approach, the vehicles are owned by individual drivers or third-party fleets, he said.

See Also: How To Buy Tesla (TSLA) Stock

Based on the above expectations, the analyst expects Tesla to divulge the following:

• Target metro areas with a high density of Tesla owners.
• The sizes of FSD Hardware 3 and Hardware 4 are installed in the fleet by key metros and geographies; Jonas estimates that about 3 million units will be on the road by the year-end.
• FSD price cut: Tesla may be in a position to offer the latest version of the FSD (v12.5.5) to Tesla drivers conducting ride-sharing services on the Tesla app at a discounted rate, the analyst said.
• Driver economics: Jonas sees Tesla likely offering a more attractive take rate to Tesla ride-share drivers than the 30% Uber Technologies Inc. UBER was offering its drivers, potentially even a 0% take rate for the first month on the platform as a temporary incentive. This will leave more money in the driver’s pocket as the company goes about growing its driver community in a supply-limited market, he added.

Jonas estimates that Tesla vehicles on the Uber platform currently could number around 50,000 units.

Price Action: Tesla ended Wednesday’s session down 3.49% at $249.02, according to Benzinga Pro data, following the release of its third-quarter deliveries report.

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