Alumis' Investigational Lead Candidate Supports Superior Profile Than Bristol Myers' Commercialized Drug, Analyst Sees 170% Stock Upside

HC Wainwright has initiated coverage on Alumis Inc. ALMS, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing oral therapies for immune-mediated diseases.

Alumis’ lead drug candidate, ESK-001, is a Tyrosine Kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitor currently in Phase 3 trials for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis (PsO) and in Phase 2 trials for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). HC Wainwright analyst has initiated coverage on Alumis with a Buy rating and a price target of $30.

Also Read: Newly-Listed Psoriasis-Focused Alumis Attracts Analysts’ Attention With Promising Lead Program And Modest Valuation.

According to HC Wainwright, ESK-001 boasts the highest selectivity within the TYK2 inhibitor space, outperforming Bristol Myers Squibb & Co’s BMY approved drug, Sotyktu (deucravacitinib) and Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd’s TAK Phase 3 candidate, TAK-279.

While Sotyktu currently leads the TYK2 market, HC Wainwright emphasizes that clinical data for ESK-001 suggest a significantly superior profile, which could drive substantial growth in the TYK2 class and expand its market share in major indications.

The analyst suggests that ESK-001’s strong efficacy has the potential to drive significant growth in the TYK2 market, boosting market share for the class in major indications.

ESK-001’s mechanism of action (MOA) in psoriasis is de-risked by the approval of Sotyktu, the first-generation oral TYK2 inhibitor already approved for this use.

Additionally, the 28-week Phase 2 open-label extension (OLE) data for ESK-001 shows favorable comparisons to Sotyktu.

HC Wainwright models peak sales of around $1.9 billion for ESK-001 in plaque psoriasis and ~$2.0 billion for ESK-001 in systemic lupus erythematosus.

Although Sotyktu’s patents start expiring in 2026, it is estimated that generic versions may not hit the market until late 2033. HC Wainwright anticipates that ESK-001 could easily outperform Sotyktu in the market, given its significant advantages against another drug in the same TYK2 inhibitor class.

Price Action: ALMS stock is down 2.68% at $10.89 at the last check on Thursday.

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