Tesla Q3 Earnings Preview: Troy Teslike, Gary Black Expects EPS To Fall Below Estimates But Dan Ives Is Optimistic About Elon Musk Addressing EV Demand, Autonomous Driving

EV giant Tesla Inc. TSLA is slated to post its financial results for the third quarter after the market closes on Wednesday and analysts are bringing their focus back to the EV giant’s fundamentals.

Analyst Take: Researcher Troy Teslike expects Tesla to miss analyst consensus estimates for non-GAAP EPS of $0.6 similar to how it missed estimates in the last four quarters. The analyst sees the EV maker reporting a non-GAAP EPS of $0.55 and missing analyst consensus for overall gross margin as well as automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits.

According to The Future Fund LLC Managing Partner Gary Black, all eyes will be on auto gross margins excluding regulatory credits in tomorrow’s earnings report. Black expects it to come at 14.2%, lower than the analyst consensus of 14.9% but higher than Teslike’s estimate of 14%. Black’s EPS estimate for the quarter is also higher than Teslike’s at $0.56.

“Importantly, the downward trajectory in TSLA's auto gross margin ex-rev credits continues to drift lower,” Black said in a post on social media platform X, reflecting on the company’s recent performance.

Our view is that $TSLA 3Q auto gross margins ex-reg credits will come in at 14.2% vs WS consensus of 14.9%. This assumes TSLA's 0.99% promo loan rate was offered globally, and that CT lost an average $20K per vehicle sold (across 13,500 vehicles) in 3Q. Importantly, the… pic.twitter.com/uqUu4jMnAA

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) October 21, 2024

Tesla bull and Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives, however, is optimistic that Tesla CEO Elon Musk will address the electric vehicle demand environment for the fourth quarter and 2025 when the company reports financial results Wednesday.

“While many investors left the Robotaxi Day clearly wanting more details on the broader autonomous and AI strategy at Tesla, we would expect Musk to address some of the timing/specifics around its FSD and Cybercab strategy on the conference call,” Ives said.

Deliveries In Q3: Tesla delivered 462,890 vehicles in the third quarter, up 6.4% from a year earlier, but still short of estimates. The company also deployed 6.9 GWh of energy storage products, but lower than the 9.4 GWh deployed in the second quarter.

The company is currently at risk of reporting its first-ever decline in annual deliveries, particularly after deliveries fell 8.5% year-on-year in the first quarter and 4.8% in the second quarter.

Price Action: At the time of writing, Tesla’s stock was down 0.7% in premarket trading on Tuesday, after closing at $218.85 on Monday. Year-to-date, Tesla’s shares have declined 11.90%, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Check out more of Benzinga's Future Of Mobility coverage by following this link.

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