Colorectal Cancer Diagnostic Focused Exact Sciences Stock Plunges On Weak Annual Guidance, Analyst Sees Compelling Long-Term Entry Point

On Tuesday, Exact Sciences Corp. EXAS reported a third-quarter EPS loss of $0.21, compared to a break-even a year ago, missing the analyst consensus loss estimate of $0.20.

The reported quarterly sales of $708.66 million missed the consensus estimate of $717.66 million.

Screening revenue was $545 million, an increase of 15%, and Precision Oncology’s revenue was $164 million, an increase of 5% on a reported and core revenue basis.

Also Read: FDA Clears Exact Sciences’ Next-Generation Colorectal Cancer Diagnostic Test.

“While we have made progress, our execution during the third quarter and updated outlook for the full year don’t reflect our full potential. We plan to accelerate growth in 2025, and our long-term outlook remains strong,” said Kevin Conroy, chairman and CEO.

Guidance: Exact Sciences cuts its 2024 revenue guidance from $2.81 billion-$2.85 billion to $2.73 billion-$2.75 billion compared to the consensus of $2.832 billion.

The guidance includes a Screening sales forecast of $2.08 billion—$2.095 billion, compared to previous guidance of $2.155 billion—$2.175 billion.

Precision Oncology sales are expected to be $650 million- $655 million, down from prior guidance of $655 million – $675 million.

The company expects 2024 Adjusted EBITDA of $310 million—$320 million, down from previous guidance of $335 million—$355 million.

William Blair notes that management attributed the lower-than-expected guidance primarily to challenges affecting the screening segment.

While these explanations are logical, they raise questions about why certain factors weren’t identified or addressed sooner. Management, however, took full responsibility and conveyed a sincere commitment to improving performance, the analyst writes.

Despite these hurdles, the analyst remains optimistic about revenue growth in 2025, highlighting several factors within the company’s control.

William Blair emphasizes that investors will likely want to see clear signs of improved execution and revenue growth resuming in 2025.

With shares trading down, the analyst writes that valuation is at a compelling long-term entry point.

Price Action: At last check on Wednesday, EXAS stock was down 28.50% at $51.16.

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