Marathon's Q3 Performance Surges Above Forecasts, But Analyst Flags Caution On Mid-Con Outlook For Q4

Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC shares are trading higher on Wednesday. Scotiabank analyst Paul. Y. Cheng, with a Sector Outperform rating and a $170 price target, shared views on third-quarter results reported yesterday.

On Tuesday, Marathon Petroleum reported revenue of $35.4 billion, topping estimates. Adjusted EPS was $1.87 vs. $0.98 expected.

Marathon Petroleum expects fourth-quarter Refining operating costs per barrel of $5.50 and Refinery throughputs of 2,880 mbpd. 

The analyst expects results to positively impact near-term share price performance, with refining operations performing strongly. Throughput, unit cost, margin capture, and turnaround expenses all exceeded expectations.

Cheng notes robust commercial operations and efficient turnaround execution were key contributors to the beat.

This marks the second consecutive quarter of better-than-expected margin capture, which could renew the shares’ momentum, adds the analyst.

However, Cheng says that the fourth-quarter outlook is weaker than anticipated, with throughput outlook below their previous estimate of 2,970 mbbl/d.

The Mid-Con region is expected to underperform relative to their expectations, adds the analyst.

Investors can gain exposure to the stock via iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF IEO and VanEck Oil Refiners ETF CRAK.

Price Action: MPC shares are up 3.49% at $154.78 at the last check Wednesday.

Photo by Ground Picture on Shutterstock

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