Analysts revised the price target or estimates on Plug Power, Inc. PLUG after the company reported weak third-quarter results and provided FY25 guidance.
On Wednesday, Plug provided its financial outlook for 2025, projecting revenue between $850 million and $950 million (street view: $1.185 billion).
Looking further ahead, the company aims for a target revenue of approximately $3.75 billion by 2030.
Also this week, Plug Power reported third-quarter revenue of $173.73 million, which missed the consensus of $210.23 million and EPS loss of 25 cents, missed estimate for a loss of 24 cents.
The company expects its full-year 2024 revenue outlook of $700 million and $800 million versus estimates of $823.46 million.
Piper Sandler analyst Kashy Harrison cut the price target to $1.40 from $1.60 while maintaining an Underweight rating.
The analyst writes that Plug’s results missed expectations but weren’t as weak as anticipated. While cash burn improved year-over-year, it remains high, requiring continued capital raises despite potential DOE loan support for Texas CapEx (annualized OCF: -$700 million).
The rationale for U.S. grid-tied green hydrogen projects is unclear due to power shortages, though European development may benefit from government support, adds the analyst.
Thus, the analyst estimates fourth-quarter revenues at $193 million, below the Street’s $280 million estimate.
JP Morgan analyst Bill Peterson maintained a Neutral rating on the stock.
The analyst writes that he found the more cautiously optimistic tone refreshing, with an acknowledgment that the broader hydrogen industry is likely to see gradual growth in the near- to mid-term.
Plug’s goals to achieve EBITDA-positive in second half of FY26 and profitability by 2028 still suggest the need for additional capital raises—estimated at $1 billion—despite the DOE loan, given the company’s fragile cash position, adds the analyst.
The analyst says that if the company executes well in 2025, it could pave the way for a stronger 2026 and growth in the latter part of the decade, contingent on factors like the DOE loan closure and final 45V guidance.
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew S Percoco reaffirmed an Underweight rating with a price target of $1.75.
The analyst maintains a cautious outlook on green hydrogen, which presents ongoing risks to the company’s long-term growth and margins.
Percoco estimates that PLUG will need to issue an additional $500 million in equity through the first half of FY25 to cover its near-term cash burn, with DOE funding expected to start in the second quarter of 2025.
Roth analyst Craig Irwin reiterated the Buy rating and a price target of $5.00, with a 2025 revenue estimate of $900 million. This reflects the successful generation of Green Hydrogen PTC in Georgia and the improving visibility of gross margin gains in second half of FY25.
PLUG’s shares may experience increased volatility due to the high valuation on 2025 estimates, with company-specific and industry catalysts potentially causing significant shifts in long-term hydrogen economy projections, adds the analyst.
With a Perform rating, Oppenheimer analysts write that they view Plug’s commentary on green ammonia pricing as positive for electrolyzer demand and see the cryogenic business benefiting from LNG growth.
The analyst says that they are encouraged by PLUG’s focus on operational efficiencies, given its cash position, and notes investors are seeking greater consistency in its financial performance.
Truist Securities analyst Jordan Levy maintained a Hold rating with a price target of $2. The analyst writes that the updated targets suggest a more grounded reset of expectations.
It appears PLUG is shifting from a pattern of overpromising and underdelivering, acknowledging the slower-than-anticipated hydrogen market growth and tighter capital environment, adds the analyst.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via Global X Hydrogen ETF HYDR.
Price Action: PLUG shares are down 3.30% at $1.905 at the last check Thursday.
Photo via Shutterstock
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