Tesla Analysts On Deliveries: EV Stock Could Have 'Stormy Weather' In Short Term, 'Generational Set Of Growth Opportunities' Long Term

Tesla Inc TSLA analysts are cautious after fourth-quarter deliveries came in below consensus estimates and production fell below delivery figures.

The Tesla Analysts: Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas maintained a Buy rating on Tesla. He also raised the price target from $298 to $404.

GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson maintained a Sell rating with a price target of $24.86.

Truist analyst William Stein maintained a Hold rating and lowered the price target from $360 to $351.

Read Also: Tesla’s First Sales Drop Splits Wall Street: ‘2025 Will Be The Prove It Year’

Canaccord: A key question after Tesla's fourth-quarter delivery miss was whether to downgrade the rating on the stock, Gianarikas said.

"Despite weaker-than-expected deliveries, we are sticking with our BUY and raising our target," Gianarikas said.

The analyst's price target is based on a price-to-earnings ratio of around 40x 2027 estimated earnings per share of $10.11.

"We feel this multiple is justified based on the multiples and growth rates of Tesla's comp set – which we deem to be a group of megacap tech stocks, including Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia."

Gianarikas said these six stocks trade at a median of 23x 2027 estimated earnings per share, but have a combined revenue growth rate around half of the estimate for Tesla from 2025 through 2027.

"Longer term, Tesla also has a generational set of growth opportunities ahead, including EVs, autonomy/AI, energy storage, and robotics."  

The Buy rating stays with one of the key catalysts being new products coming in 2025, the analyst said.

"We are suckers for new product stories. Tesla tends to deliver excitement when it refreshes its portfolio."

GLJ Research: Weaker than expected delivery and production figures from Tesla could suggest "stormy weather" ahead for Tesla bulls in 2025, Johnson said in a new investor note.

Johnson asks questions in the note about Tesla CEO Elon Musk's previous comments about having access to real-time data on vehicle orders and the ability to make pricing, production and inventory decisions quickly compared to a longer lead time for other automotive companies.

"With TSLA producing just 459.445K cars in 4Q24 vs. stated capacity of >587.5k or utilization of just 78.2%, in this note we attempt to answer the question," Johnson said.

Johnson suggests production of 459.445k could be the "new run-rate" for Tesla based on global demand, which would mean demand has peaked at less than two million cars sold per year.

This would mean that Street consensus estimates of more than two million vehicle sales for Tesla in 2025 and future years would be off, Johnson said.

Tesla had inventory of 96.033k units in the fourth quarter. That’s the lowest level since the first quarter of 2023, Johnson said.

"The record drawdown of TSLA's inventory seen in 4Q24 suggests they see demand headwinds as imminent."

Johnson said Tesla stock could come under "significant selling pressure" with investors turning to fundamentals.

The analyst predicts Tesla's upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report this month will be a "bloodbath quarter."

Truist: Deliveries and production were lower than Street estimates in the fourth quarter. This caused an inventory burn, Stein said in a new investor note.

Fourth-quarter deliveries were 4.4% below his estimates, while production was 12.7% below his estimates and below the delivery total.

Stein said data analysis suggests Tesla's average selling prices were down quarter-over-quarter.

"Longer-term, we expect ASPs to continue facing downward pressure as we anticipate TSLA will continue to flex pricing to stimulate demand," Stein said.  

The analyst uses a discounted cash flow methodology for the Tesla price target. Stein estimates revenue and profitability for current and future Tesla businesses, including automotive, energy, FSD, Dojo and Optimus.

TSLA Price Action: Tesla stock is up 3% to $389.20 Friday versus a 52-week trading range of $138.80 to $488.54.

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