Tesla Stock 'Valuation Is Full': Analyst Flags Long-Term Growth Opportunities With Robotaxis, FSD

by Chris Katje Benzinga Staff Writer

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A Tesla Inc TSLA analyst highlighted the monetization opportunities for the company with its robotaxis and FSD.

The Tesla Analyst: Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney maintained a Neutral rating on Tesla with a $345 price target.

The Analyst Takeaways: Improvement in Tesla's FSD saw robotaxi revenue now factored into Delaney's financial models for the company in a new investor note.

The analyst expects Tesla's robotaxis to begin operations in the second half of 2026 and hit revenue of around $115 million in 2027.

Delaney's $115 million estimate was based on Tesla's robotaxi fleet hitting 300 vehicles by the end of 2026 and 1,500 vehicles by the end of 2027 with 20 trips per day per vehicle in 2027 and a price of $2.50 per mile.

"We believe that the performance of Tesla's FSD software has meaningfully improved with V13 compared to V12 based on our recent ride in a FSD V13-enabled Tesla vehicle, crowdsourced data, and third-party reviews," Delaney said.

Crowdsourced data showed more miles between interventions and 97% of drives not requiring a critical intervention, the report said.

"While we are encouraged by the improvement, recall that Tesla aims to be safer than a human driver in 2Q25, and FSD would need significant improvement to reach this level."

While there is more work to be done on FSD, the analyst saw monetization levels picking up in 2026 and 2027.

"We believe long-term FSD monetization potential will not only depend on technical progress, but the degree to which Tesla's software is differentiated vs. other alternatives."

Delaney also said FSD licensing to other OEMs could provide an upside scenario for Tesla and this business segment.

The incoming Donald Trump White House administration could change federal standards on robotaxi rules, the report also said.

This could help Tesla launch robotaxi services in several states and feature existing Tesla models first before launching the new Cybercab as part of the services.

"Globally, the market for robotaxis could reach billions of dollars in TAM at a high number of deployments and across operators."

Delaney remains cautious about Tesla and sees "valuation as full." The analyst said the ramp in FSD could take longer than Tesla targets, auto fundamentals could remain volatile and auto delivery volumes could be lower than Tesla's outlook in 2025.

"We believe Tesla remains well positioned for long-term growth, given its leadership position in EVs; the breadth/depth of its technical capabilities in AI, software, and hardware; and its ability to benefit from a full set of solutions including in charging and storage."

TSLA Price Action: Tesla stock is down 3.71% Thursday to $412.33 versus a 52-week trading range of $138.80 to $488.54. Tesla stock is up 88% over the last year.

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