Intel Vs. AMD: Server Battle, AI Race Frame Earnings Test

Zinger Key Points

Intel struggles with CPU share loss and AI absence, while M&A speculation and 18A progress could offer support.
AMD gains server CPU share, but AI revenue forecasts lag consensus, keeping investor focus on 2025 growth potential.
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The semiconductor showdown between Intel Corp INTC and Advanced Micro Devices Inc AMD is reaching a critical juncture as both companies prepare to report their fourth quarter earnings.

While BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya maintains an Underperform rating on Intel and a Neutral stance on AMD, the dynamics of the PC, server, and AI markets are reshaping investor sentiment.

Intel: Can 18A and M&A Speculation Keep It Afloat?

Intel faces a tough near-term outlook with limited market growth, CPU share losses, and ongoing PC weakness. The server segment is nearing a bottom, but AI remains a glaring void in Intel's pipeline, the analyst says. M&A speculation is swirling, yet Arya sees multiple hurdles, including regulatory challenges and Intel's growing dependence on TSMC—ironically countering the CHIPS Act’s goals.

The wildcard? Any breakthrough in Intel's 18A node progress could offer a lifeline, but proof of success remains elusive.

AMD: A Balancing Act Between AI Hopes & Market Reality

AMD has gained server CPU share but remains highly sensitive to AI GPU demand for 2025.

While the analyst expects in-line fourth quarter earnings, PC headwinds and muted embedded/gaming demand could pressure Q1 results. The AI market is a game-changer, but Arya sees AMD's 2025 AI revenue at $8 billion—below the $9 billion consensus.

Despite the sector's explosive growth, Nvidia Corp still holds an 80%+ share, leaving AMD as a secondary player.

The Verdict: Who Wins The Chip Wars?

For now, AMD appears better positioned with steady server CPU gains and AI exposure, but its long-term AI share remains a question mark.

Intel, on the other hand, is still fighting manufacturing uncertainty and AI irrelevance, though any positive 18A developments could shift sentiment.

As the fourth quarter earnings approach, investors must decide whether Intel's floor is solid—or just a mirage—while AMD's AI bet faces a reality check.

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