Tesla Analyst's Top 5 Items To Watch In Q4 Earnings: Will Refreshed Model Y, New EVs Help Growth?

by Chris Katje Benzinga Staff Writer

Tesla Inc TSLA analyst Mark Delaney highlights the Model Y update, automotive market share, what consumers are saying in a new survey and key questions ahead of the company's fourth quarter earnings report on Wednesday, Jan. 29.

Tesla Model Y: The refreshed Model Y, which comes to the U.S. and Europe after a launch in China earlier this month, offers good upgrades, Goldman Sachs analyst Delaney said in the investor note.

The analyst maintained a Neutral rating with a price target of $345.

"Some of the changes made in the refresh, beyond the extended range, include updated exterior lighting, an added screen for the back seat, ambient lighting, and better outside noise reduction," Delaney said.

The analyst said a new camera on the front bumper could better assist with parking and also could be used for Autopilot and FSD.

Tesla is offering discounts on Model Y units in inventory ahead of the refresh launch in March.

"Mix and how fast Tesla ramps up production of the refreshed version will help determine the effect on blended ASPs. We believe the new version offers several good enhancements."

Tesla Market Share: The analyst estimates Tesla's sales in the U.S. were flat in the fourth quarter on a year-over-year basis. Tesla's market share for the electric vehicle sector in the U.S. likely hit "the mid 40% range," Delaney said. This would be down from around 50% in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Delaney estimates Tesla's sales in the European market were down 10% year-over-year in the fourth quarter and its market share went from 16% in last year's fourth quarter to 13% in this most recent fourth quarter.

The analyst said Tesla's sales in China are estimated up 16% year-over-year in the fourth quarter and the company had a high-single-digit percentage market share for battery-powered electric vehicles.

Consumer Feedback Survey: Delaney uses data from a HundredX consumer feedback survey to predict Tesla's demand.

"The survey data still shows a decline for Tesla in the brand/trust metric, whereas the score for the broader industry have been relatively stable. Similarly, Tesla's net purchase intent scores have declined by more than the peer group," Delaney said.

The analyst said items like new vehicles and Full Self Driving are keys in potentially reversing the Tesla scores going forward.

Key Items to Watch: Ahead of Tesla's fourth-quarter financial results, Delaney highlights the top items to watch.

These are the analyst’s key topics for the earnings report:

Automotive non-GAAP gross margins
Vehicle delivery outlook for 2025
Progress with FSD and AI-related efforts
Growth in other segments, including Services and Energy
Progress with Optimus and expectations on ramp timing

"We believe a key debate in the market will be whether Tesla can grow more meaningfully in 2025/2026, driven by a refreshed Model Y and a new lower-cost model or models," Delaney said.

The analyst said Tesla is targeting 20% to 30% year-over-year growth in deliveries in 2025.

Delaney said the potential end of the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles could be a key topic in the company commentary.

On the AI front, Delaney said Tesla is unlikely to hit a goal of being safer than human drivers in the second quarter of 2025. The analyst also questions Tesla's timeline launch of the Cybercab robotaxi in 2026.

"We expect Tesla to begin very limited robotaxi operations in 2H26."

TSLA Price Action: Tesla stock is down 3.02% to $394.62 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $138.80 to $488.54. Tesla stock is up about 110% over the past year.

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