Tesla Earnings: Delivery Outlook, Model Y Ramp-Up, Optimus Bot In Focus, Say Analysts

Analysts from Morgan Stanley believe that the focus during Tesla Inc.’s TSLA upcoming earnings call would be whether the company reiterates its previous delivery growth target of 20-30% this year in addition to updates on its various products.

Analyst Take: Attention will be paid to what the company has to say about ramping up the production of its new Model Y as well as to details on improvement in the company’s full self-driving driver assistance technology and milestones about the humanoid robot the company is developing called Optimus.

The analysts said in a note on Friday that they expect fourth-quarter gross auto margin excluding regulatory credits in the 15% range and free cash flow in the quarter to be supported by inventory reduction. Tesla is slated to report its fourth quarter as well as full-year 2024 financial results on Wednesday at 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

The analysts, however, do not expect the vehicle deliveries this year to rise by as much as 30%. Instead, they think that the volume growth in 2025 will be closer to 10% than 20% given pressures on the EV market, competition in China, decelerating Cybertruck volumes, and expectations of EV tax incentives being revoked.

The analysts also said that they expect to see President Trump’s policies about electric and autonomous vehicles encouraging new domestic supply of critical technologies. Tesla, in their opinion, shall play a role in helping to fill the void of
next-gen manufacturing and supply chain, driving growth and shareholder value.

Morgan Stanley has a price target of $430 on Tesla with an “overweight” rating.

Price Action: Tesla shares closed down 2.3% at $397.15 on Monday. The stock is up 4.7% year-to-date, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

Check out more of Benzinga’s Future Of Mobility coverage by following this link.

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