Zinger Key Points
- Tesla misses revenue and earnings per share estimates in the fourth quarter.
- Analysts look to the company's future with new details on FSD and Optimus along with confirmation of a low-cost vehicle.
Tesla Inc TSLA analysts highlighted a confirmation of the low-cost vehicle in 2025, unsupervised FSD and updates on Optimus Bot as the key takeaways from the company's fourth-quarter financial results.
The Tesla Analysts: Bank of America analyst John Murphy reiterated a Neutral rating on Tesla with a $490 price target.
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney maintained a Neutral rating with a $345 price target.
Needham analyst Chris Pierce reiterated a Hold rating with no price target.
RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan maintained an Outperform rating with a $440 price target.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $365 to $425.
Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter maintained an Overweight rating with a $500 price target.
Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro reiterated a Buy rating with a $492 price target.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas maintained an Overweight rating with a $430 price target.
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Bank of America on TSLA: A mark-to-market benefit on the company's Bitcoin BTC/USD investment helped cushion the company's gross margins, Murphy said in a new investment note.
"Excluding this gain, 4Q:24 results were materially weaker than our forecast," Murphy said.
The analyst said the new product launches being on-track and the robotaxi are positives, while concerns about volume, lower pricing, tariffs and the "Optimus distraction" are headwinds for the company.
"1Q:25 results will be adversely impacted by several weeks of lost Model Y production as TSLA shifting all of its factories to the new Model Y. This will weigh on revenues and gross margin. We roughly estimate TSLA will lose 100k vehicles of production from this changeover."
Goldman Sachs on TSLA: After reporting profitability below consensus estimates, Delaney said margins and FSD progress will likely be the key debates.
The analyst said strong energy profits and the non-cash gains on Bitcoin, estimated at 17 cents per share, weren't enough to offset weakness on gross margins.
"The automotive non-GAAP gross margin excluding regulatory credits declined to 13.6% in 4Q24 from 17.1% in 3Q24, below our 15.0% estimate and StreetAccounts consensus at ~16%," Delaney said.
The analyst said the quarterly results had something for bulls and bears. The negatives were profitability, earnings per share weakness, margins and the downtime for the Model Y transition.
"Positively, Tesla continue to expect to introduce a new lower cost model with production planned to start later in 1H25, and Tesla commented that it expects to start a robotaxi operation in Austin this June."
Delaney said FSD v13 is "very good," but Tesla needs to show more progress for it to become an eyes-off product.
"While we continue to see Tesla as a leader in autonomous technology, our base case remains that it will take the company longer to reach its AV goals than it targets."
Needham on TSLA: Telsa could struggle to match supply and demand, Pierce said in a new investor note.
The analyst said Tesla is playing catch-up in autonomous driving until it can unlock the full fleet of vehicles currently on the road.
Pierce said autonomous and robotics are "shouldering an even heavier load" for Tesla's growth story. Tesla's comments on Optimus Bot production levels were likely well received by bulls, Pierce said.
"ASPs are still fuzzy, and production cadence slippage wouldn't be overly surprising, but we expect bulls to welcome any TSLA Robotics disclosures," Pierce said.
The analyst said Tesla's confirmation of a low-priced vehicle could expand the company's total addressable market.
"Between this potential vehicle and the updated Model Y we see the potential for TSLA to refresh their vehicle lineup for the first time in years."
RBC Capital on TSLA: News on a low-cost vehicle, FSD, robotaxi and Optimus show that the "moonshots getting real," Narayan said in a new investor note.
The analyst said confirmation of the low-cost vehicle could be one of the most important items from the earnings report.
"We think some investors thought this would be withdrawn," Narayan said.
The analyst forecasts 2025 delivery growth of 14% helped by the affordable vehicle models set to be introduced.
Cantor Fitzgerald on TSLA: Tesla's announcement on unsupervised FSD, Optimus Bot and the confirmation of the lower-cost model in 2025 see Sheppard updating estimates and raising the price target in a new note.
"We are increasing our PT to $425 as we incorporate revenues from Unsupervised FSD starting in 2H25, and from Optimus starting 2H26, to our model, driven by higher energy generation and storage revenue estimates in FY25 and FY26," Sheppard said.
With the price target increase, Sheppard said there are key risks for Tesla remaining. Risks include Chinese automotive competition, regulatory approval for FSD and robotaxi, the removal of the EV tax credit and a slowdown in EV demand.
Piper Sandler on TSLA: Gross margins and lower average selling prices were misses in Tesla's fourth quarter, Potter said in a new investor note.
"Q4 results weren't great, but who cares? Elon has never sounded so bullish," Potter said of Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
The analyst said Tesla committed to new products and vehicle growth in 2025, along with bullish commentary on FSD software.
"It's true, Elon Musk's predictions re: FSD timing have been historically inaccurate…but to us, this time it feels different; peers (and investors) should not dismiss this."
Potter said solving FSD could be the first step of "commercializing real-world AI," which would open up new valuation scenarios for Tesla.
Stifel on TSLA: Fourth-quarter results are neutral for Tesla stock, Gengaro said in a new note.
The analyst said negatives in the report were revenue, gross margins and profit per vehicle sold. The positives were lower cost of goods per vehicle, strong 2025 expectations for vehicle growth, strong guidance for energy storage and progress on FSD/robotaxi.
"We reiterate our belief that TSLA remains very well positioned, and FSD and Robotaxi will be critical value drivers," Gengaro said.
Gengaro said FSD and robotaxi initiatives are "critical to the story."
The analyst said the removal of the $7,500 tax credit will hurt Tesla margins, but be a "bigger problem" for Tesla's competition.
"We believe that CEO Elon Musk's support for the President and involvement in the administration likely creates and easier path to FSD and Robotaxi."
Morgan Stanley on TSLA: A vague outlook and a miss on weaker prices have Jonas asking if Tesla is a car company with shares trading higher after the earnings report.
"4Q results were mostly disappointing, but not particularly narrative changing," Jonas said.
While Tesla said it expected a "return to growth" for vehicle delivery in 2025, Jonas said there was not a mention of Musk's previous guidance of 20% to 30% volume growth.
"Tesla's 4Q results are emblematic of a company in the transition from an automotive ‘pure play' to a highly diversified play on AI and robotics."
TSLA Price Action: Tesla stock is up 3.56% to $402.91 Thursday at publication versus a 52-week trading range of $138.80 to $488.54.
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