Amazon.com Q4 Earnings Preview: Analyst Says Could Be 'Upside On Every Metric'

Amazon.com Inc AMZN could provide a look at AI growth, NFL success and how tariffs could impact financial results when the company reports fourth-quarter financial results after market close Thursday.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Amazon to report fourth-quarter revenue of $187.3 billion, up from $170.0 billion in last year's fourth quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in eight of the last 10 quarters, including the most recent quarter.

Analysts expect Amazon to report fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.49, up from $1.00 in last year's fourth quarter. The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in eight straight quarters including nine of the past 10 quarters.

Guidance from the company calls for fourth-quarter revenue to be in a range of $181.5 billion to $188.5 billion. Amazon expects operating income to be in a range of $16 billion to $20 billion in the fourth quarter.

What Analysts Are Saying: Benchmark analyst Daniel Kurnos said Amazon should report strong fourth-quarter results with the main concern being operating income margins.

The analyst maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $215 to $265.

"We are largely in line with consensus across the board for the print itself and would be surprised if there were not some upside on every metric based on a combination of ecommerce vs. offline channel gains," Kurnos said.

The analyst said there is a risk that operating income margins could be weak, which comes based on the company's guidance.

"Even with the threat of tariffs and ongoing inflation headwinds, we see minimal risk to Amazon's top line results given perceived strength in underlying essential item sales growth plus gains in delivery, advertising, and AWS."

Bank of America analyst Justin Post maintained a Buy rating with a $255 price target recently.

The analyst sees Amazon reporting strong quarterly results thanks to fulfillment and headcount leverage, along with the AWS segment getting a boost from AI contribution.

Here are other analyst ratings on Amazon and their price targets:

Telsey: Maintained Outperform rating, $275 price target
JMP: Reiterated Market Outperform rating, $285 price target
Scotiabank: Maintained Sector Outperform rating, raised price target from $246 to $306
Cantor Fitzgerald: Reiterated Overweight rating, $270 price target
Raymond James: Maintained Strong Buy rating, raised price target from $230 to $260

Key Items to Watch: While many eyes will be on the company's top and bottom-line figures, attention will likely shift to other key areas that could determine if the stock trades up or down after hours Wednesday.

The company's AWS cloud segment will be a key area to watch after competitors in the cloud sector recently reported.

Commentary on CapEX and spending will also be a key focus after Meta and Alphabet each announced large amounts for their 2025 CapEx related to progress in the AI space.

Streaming could be another area to watch. While Prime Video isn't the company's most important business line, it helps bring in additional advertising and subscription revenue opportunities and could get a boost from the NFL.

Amazon's "Thursday Night Football" games averaged 13.2 million viewers during the 2024 NFL season, up 11% year-over-year. The company also broadcast a second annual Black Friday game, which may have helped in-game promotional advertising.

Several media companies that have reported recent earnings have highlighted strength of political and sports coverage and advertising demand. Amazon could benefit from both of these items in the quarter.

AMZN Price Action: Amazon stock is down 2.4% to $236.20 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $151.61 to $242.52. Amazon stock is up 39% over the last year.

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