ConocoPhillips' 2025 Outlook Holds Steady Despite Production Headwinds: JP Morgan

JP Morgan analyst Arun Jayaram expressed views on ConocoPhillips COP fourth-quarter results reported today. The analyst has an Overweight rating on the stock.

The company reported revenue of $14.74 billion, beating the consensus of $14.30 billion, and adjusted EPS of $1.98, beating the consensus of $1.84.

The analyst expects a slightly positive market reaction to ConocoPhillips' earnings, which featured a beat, a largely in-line 2025 outlook, and a $10 billion return of capital commitment matching expectations (JPM estimates at $9.95 billion).

The return of capital plan is based on current commodity prices and the company’s historical practice of returning 40%-45% of CFO, though adjustments may occur depending on market conditions, adds the analyst.

Jayaram writes that for 2025, ConocoPhillips projects production of 2,360 MBoe/d, 1% below JPM estimates, while capex guidance of $12.9 billion aligns with JPM estimates.

Notably, 2025 capex includes 15% lower spending in the Lower 48 while still delivering low single-digit pro-forma production growth, per the analyst.

The analyst says that the production outlook was impacted by ~$600 million in non-core asset sales, planned turnarounds of 20 MBoe/d, and adverse winter weather in the first quarter of 2025, which reduced January production by 60 MBoe/d, or 20 MBoe/d for the quarter.

Investors can gain exposure to the COP stock via Texas Capital Funds Trust Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF OILT and IShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF IEO.

Price Action: COP shares are down 0.67% at $99.54 at the last check Thursday.

Photo via Shutterstock.

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