Amazon Tightens Grip As E-Commerce Accelerates: JPMorgan's 'Best Idea' For 2025

The U.S. e-commerce engine is shifting into higher gear, and Amazon.com Inc AMZN remains firmly in the driver's seat.

JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth updated his U.S. e-commerce model, projecting an acceleration in growth through 2025, with Amazon standing out as his "Best Idea."

Fourth-quarter U.S. e-commerce sales grew 9.3% year-over-year, easily surpassing JPMorgan's 7.5% estimate. This upside came despite a shorter holiday shopping season and cautious consumer spending on discretionary items.

E-commerce penetration continued its upward march, rising for the eighth straight quarter to 24.4% of adjusted retail sales. Anmuth expects this trend to persist, with penetration hitting 23.7% by 2025 and the long-term potential to soar past 40%.

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Market Share Dips Slightly, But Leadership Holds

Amazon's retail business matched the market's pace, with first-party sales growing 8% and third-party sales climbing 9% year-over-year. The real story, however, lies in the company's logistics muscle.

In 2024 alone, Amazon delivered over 9 billion items within a single day, setting a new benchmark for speed. Coupled with the expanding Prime ecosystem and competitive pricing, Amazon's dominance remains unshaken.

While Amazon's U.S. e-commerce market share slipped by 58 basis points to 46.1% in the fourth quarter, Anmuth sees this as a minor blip rather than a trend reversal. He forecasts Amazon's U.S. gross merchandise value (GMV) to grow 8.2% year-over-year in 2025, maintaining a commanding 44.7% market share.

In Anmuth's view, Amazon's blend of fast delivery, vast selection, and Prime-powered loyalty keeps it leagues ahead, reinforcing its crown as the top e-commerce player heading into 2025.

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