Target Q4 Earnings Preview: Why One Analyst Remains 'Cautious' On Retailer After Walmart's Report

Retailer Target Corporation TGT could highlight strong Black Friday sales and the impact tariffs could have on consumers when the company reports fourth-quarter financials before market open Tuesday.

Here are the analyst estimates and commentary, plus key items to watch ahead of the report.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Target to report fourth-quarter revenue of $30.84 billion. That’s down from $31.92 billion in last year's fourth quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company has missed analyst estimates for revenue in two straight quarters. It beat estimates in six of the last 10 quarters overall.

Analysts expect Target to report fourth-quarter earnings per share of $2.26, down from $2.98 in last year's fourth quarter. The company missed analyst estimates for earnings per share in one straight quarter while beating estimates in six of the last 10 quarters.

Target's guidance for the fourth quarter calls for earnings per share to be in a range of $1.85 to $2.45.

Read Also: How To Earn $500 A Month From Target Stock Ahead Of Q4 Earnings

What Analysts Are Saying: Target previously reported holiday sales growth of +2.8%, but maintained its earnings per share range, which could suggest a heavier impact from promotions and discounts, Truist analyst Scot Ciccarelli said in a new investor note.

The analyst has a Hold rating and $134 price target. Target's first quarter also appears to be off to a slow start, the analyst added.

"We also think there is a chance that the company could pursue significant price investments (which we believe is needed) to improve their competitive pricing and drive longer-term share gains," Ciccarelli said.

The analyst said holiday sales growth was in-line with investor expectations and that is the assumption for the fourth quarter.

"Based on 2 years of sluggish sales performance and what appears to be a soft start to 1Q25, we think the company will likely guide comps towards a 0% to +2% range."

Ciccarelli said competitive pressure from Amazon.com and Walmart WMT "continue to mount" for Target.

"We remain cautious on TGT given continued share pressures and think that the company may need to accelerate their pricing investments to improve its competitive positioning."

Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target on Target stock from $164 to $166 in January.

The analyst said Target underperformed other retailers in 2024, but the company's higher mix of discretionary products could help in the future.

"We also think TGT can benefit over time from leveraging its strong fulfillment model and its alternative revenue streams, including Roundel (advertising), Target Circle (membership), and Target Plus (marketplace)," McShane said.

The analyst said Target stock had "limited downside potential" at the time.

Here are other recent analyst ratings on Target and their price targets:

• JPMorgan: Maintained Neutral rating, raised price target from $139 to $146
• Bernstein: Maintained Market Perform rating, raised price target from $139 to $142
• Guggenheim: Maintained Buy rating, raised price target from $145 to $155

Key Items to Watch: A recent report from Placer.ai showed that Target store visits were up 1.0% in November, down 1.3% in December and up 3.6% in January, which could signal improved sales for the first quarter.

The same report recently showed Walmart's foot traffic patterns matching up closely with the company's comparable sales growth for its recently reported quarter.

While Walmart is a rival, data from Placer.ai shows that Target has customers with higher median household income, has a larger share of repeat monthly visitors and a higher market share of shopping from households with children.

The quarterly results and comparison to recent results from Walmart, who beat analyst estimates for revenue and earnings per share, could show if higher-income shoppers are struggling more or less than lower-income shoppers.

Target's fourth-quarter results will include Black Friday and holiday shopping sales. The company's partnership with Taylor Swift on an exclusive Eras Tour book saw lines outside stores and strong sales over the Black Friday shopping holiday.

In the third quarter, Target highlighted Beauty, Food & Beverage and Essentials as sectors seeing strong year-over-year growth.

Investors and analysts will be looking for commentary on what sectors are seeing strong sales and how the future impact of tariffs on certain goods could impact the retail giant.

Price Action: Target stock is up 0.3% to $124.56 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $120.21 to $181.86. Target stock is down 9.2% year-to-date in 2025 and down 17.2% over the past year.

Compare that to Walmart stock, which trades at $98.11 versus a 52-week trading range of $58.40 to $105.30. Walmart stock is up 9.0% year-to-date in 2025 and up 65.4% over the past year.

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