Tesla Stock Nears 50% Drop From All-Time Highs: Analyst Says 'Difficult Fundamental Conditions' Ahead

A Tesla Inc TSLA analyst lowers the price target on the stock due to weaker than expected demand in regions like Europe.

The Tesla Analyst: Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney maintained a Neutral rating on Tesla and lowered the price target from $345 to $320.

The Analyst Takeaways: Broad demand trends for electric vehicles and lower demand seen in Europe will lead to lower delivery estimates for Tesla, Delaney said in a new investor note.

"We continue to expect Tesla to face difficult fundamental conditions in the near-term, and our EPS estimates are below the Street for 2025," he said.

The analyst said Tesla's earnings growth will improve over the longer-term thanks to software revenue like FSD.

Lower deliveries in the first quarter according to reports are likely the result of the Model Y transition and overall weaker demand, Delaney said.

Delaney expects deliveries to be stronger in March with the refreshed Model Y ramp.

The analyst's first quarter delivery estimate drops from 399,000 units to 375,000 units based on the new data, including a 40% year-over-year decline in Europe in January. For the full fiscal year, Delaney estimates Tesla's deliveries at 1.91 million, down from a previous estimate of 1.96 million.

Consumer survey data shows lower scores for Tesla on brand value and trust in recent months, the analyst noted.

Delaney sees tougher competition for Tesla in China, while highlighting the positive of FSD recently being released in the country. The analyst said Tesla rivals are releasing similar software without consumers needing to purchase an additional package in China, which could make it harder for the company to monetize FSD in the country.

TSLA Price Action: Tesla stock is trading at $271.61 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $138.80 to $488.54. Tesla stock is down 28.4% year-to-date in 2025.

While Tesla stock previously soared after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election, the stock is back to nearly where it was after the victory.

Tesla stock closed at $251.44 on Nov. 5 and opened for trading at $284.67 on Nov. 6 after Trump’s victory was announced.

With its price of $271.61, Tesla stock is also getting closer to a 50% drop from its all-time high reached in December.

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