Analyst Predicts Moderate Decline In Housing Starts For 2025, Upgrades PulteGroup

Seaport Global analyst Kenneth Zener upgraded PulteGroup PHM from Sell to Neutral and announced a price forecast of $100.

The analyst writes that his ratings begin with long-term investors’ benchmark relative weighting decisions, analyzing past cycle stock performance by quartiles (cycle time divided by 4).

Historical data suggests that absolute declines are still likely, but the sector’s risk-to-return profile flattens, providing an opportunity for early-cycle positioning with asymmetric returns when the cycle turns, adds the analyst.

The analyst says the sector’s historical decline of 41% over the past 21 cycles, with the upper half of stocks falling 24%, while the lower half dropped 49%. Returns in the third quartile fell 26%, with another 15% decline into the trough.

Zener expects the second quarter of FY25 to start to fall by 15%-20% in the first half of 2025 to lower the new supply.

The analyst says that starts of 993k (2-mth avg) vs. Trough 847k are poised to accelerate declines.

New Under-construction / Complete 40% above LT levels (390k vs ~280k), per the analyst.

The analyst remains cautious that sustained GDP growth will be benign to inflation.

In January, the company reported fourth-quarter revenues of $4.92 billion, topped the consensus of $4.635 billion, and adjusted EPS of $3.50, beating the consensus estimate of $3.27.

Investors can gain exposure to the stock via iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF ITB and SPDR Series Trust SPDR Homebuilders ETF XHB.

Price Action: PHM shares are up 0.74% at $106.76 at the last check Thursday.

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