Traeger's Weak Sales Outlook & Tariff Risks Weigh on Growth, Analyst Downgrades Stock

Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman downgraded Traeger, Inc. COOK to Market Perform from Outperform, lowering the price forecast to $2.50 from $4.00.

Feldman expects Traeger’s performance trends to remain challenging in 2025.

The company provided disappointing guidance for 2025, forecasting flat sales at the midpoint of $595 million to $615 million, below the FactSet consensus of $628 million.

The analyst highlighted that consumer caution, due to elevated interest rates and inflation, continues to affect spending on big-ticket items. Additionally, the guidance does not account for potential tariff impacts under the new Trump administration, which could hurt sales as around 50% of products are sourced from China, the analyst writes.

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Furthermore, long-time CFO Dominic Blosil will step down at the end of first quarter of 2025 and transition to a support role through the end of 2025. Joey Hord, Traeger’s SVP of Finance and Strategy, will replace Blosil as CFO.

On the positive side, the analyst suggests that Traeger may still outperform the industry due to its efforts in increasing brand awareness through marketing and customer engagement.

The company is also introducing innovations like the Woodbridge line and exploring adjacent product categories.

Traeger aims to drive recurring revenues through its consumables business and grocery distribution while expanding internationally. However, Feldman projects macroeconomic challenges to continue affecting demand, with tariffs adding further downside risk.

As a result, the analyst has decided to move to the sidelines. Feldman has lowered the 2025 sales forecast to $605 million, down from $632 million, and expects adjusted EBITDA to be $75 million, lower than the previous estimate of $90 million. This reflects a contraction in the adjusted EBITDA margin to 12.3% from 14.2% previously.

For 2026, the analyst projects 6% sales growth to $642 million and adjusted EBITDA of $90 million.

Price Action: COOK shares are trading flat at $2.16 at last check Friday.

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