Goldman Sachs Trims FedEx Forecast, Cites B2B Weakness, Tariffs And Industrial Slowdown

Goldman Sachs analyst Jordan Alliger lowered estimates for FedEx Corporation FDX ahead of its third-quarter FY25 earnings release on March 20.

The analyst has rated the company Buy with a price forecast of $315, down from $328.

Alliger reduced third-quarter EPS estimates from $4.65 to $4.40 due to ongoing transportation challenges, particularly in industrial-exposed LTL.

The analyst also reduced FY25 EPS estimates from $18.85 to $18.65, citing volume declines in B2B parcel services like U.S. Priority and Ground Commercial.

For FY26, Alliger lowered EPS estimates from $23.30 to $22.20, with B2B parcel volumes expected to remain negative in early FY26 before improving in the second half. Also, for FY27, the analyst slashed EPS estimate from $26.30 to $25.50.

The analyst says that the lowered estimates for the remainder of the year reflect uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the recovery timeline for the manufacturing and B2B sectors.

This adjustment aligns with the broader estimate reductions made across the transportation sector following the fourth quarter earnings season, adds the analyst.

Meanwhile, Alliger says that he remains optimistic about FDX’s ongoing cost-cutting efforts and investments in its LTL business.

These initiatives boost confidence in the company’s ability to achieve significant operational leverage when the industrial economy rebounds, adds the analyst.

Investors can gain exposure to the stock via First Trust S&P 500 Diversified Dividend Aristocrats ETF IYT and ProShares Trust ProShares Supply Chain Logistics ETF SUPL.

Price Action: FDX shares are down 0.71% at $241.77 at the last check Thursday.

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