Plug Power's 2025 Bet On Electrolyzers—J.P. Morgan Sees Growth But Stays Conservative

J.P. Morgan analyst Bill Peterson shared key takeaways from the conference hosted for Plug Power, Inc. PLUG, with a Neutral rating.

The analyst writes that the discussions mainly centered on the demand outlook across its three key verticals, cost-saving initiatives, and the financial roadmap for the year.

Although not a central topic, there are signs of potential support from the new administration for Plug’s Texas DOE loan. Meanwhile, the timeline for the first loan disbursement, if approved, remains unclear, adds the analyst.

The analyst notes that Plug recently lowered its full-year revenue guidance to ~$700 million-$800 million from the previous $850 million-$950 million, citing macro headwinds and policy uncertainty.

Peterson expects Electrolyzers to be the top revenue driver in 2025, with growth weighted toward the second half due to commissioning timelines—potentially mirroring 2024’s ~60% growth, though he remain conservative.

Earlier this month, Plug Power disclosed that it expects Project Quantum Leap to reduce annual expenses in the range of $150 million to $200 million.

The analyst says that if the company’s plan works as expected, the fourth quarter could potentially be a strong breakeven quarter, driven by increased revenue and cost savings, though he still expects this to be much further in the future.

Yesterday, the company got a contract from Southwire, a North American manufacturer of wire and cable, to implement a clean hydrogen ecosystem at their new distribution site in Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas.

Investors can gain exposure to the stock via Global X Hydrogen ETF HYDR and ETF Series Solutions Defiance Next Gen H2 ETF HDRO.

Price Action: PLUG shares are up 1.52% at $1.675 at the last check Friday.

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