Five Below Q4 Earnings Preview: Analyst Less Optimistic Due To Macro, Tariffs And Short Holiday Season

Five Below FIVE could highlight strong 2024 holiday sales and the impact of potential tariffs when the discount retailer reports fourth-quarter financial results after market close Wednesday.

Here's a look at the earnings estimates, analyst commentary and key items for investors to watch.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Nvidia to report fourth-quarter revenue of $1.39 billion. That’s up from $1.34 billion in last year's fourth quarter according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in two straight quarters and six of the last 10 quarters overall.

Analysts expect Nvidia to report fourth-quarter earnings per share of $3.38, down from $3.65 in last year's fourth quarter. The company beat analyst estimates in the third quarter, while beating estimates in five of the last 10 quarters overall.

Company guidance calls for Q4 revenue in a range of $1.35 billion to $1.38 billion and earnings per share in a range of $3.15 to $3.33.

What Analysts Are Saying: Ahead of the report, Telsey analyst Joseph Feldman cut the price target, citing difficult macro and consumer spending trends, and a shorter holiday season.

The analyst maintained a Market Perform rating and lowered the price target from $115 to $85.

"In 2025, we expect Five Below to focus on back to basics after gravitating away from its core trendy, value-focused assortment in the past few years due to missteps in merchandising and operations," Feldman said.

Five Below is focused on its core teen and pre-teen customers, the analyst says. The company is also “reducing SKUs to allow newness” to emphasize value of products and take advantage of emerging trends.

Lastly, the company lowered its new store target for 2025.

"We believe these are steps in the right direction and should help to revive the business,” Feldman said.

Feldman said some of the company's changes could take time. The addition of a new CEO in December also remains a wildcard for the company's forward strategic plan, the analyst added.

"Taking it all together, we are encouraged by the progress on the turnaround but wait to see improvement in sales and profits."

Key Items to Watch: One of the largest items to watch when Five Below reports will be any commentary about tariffs.

Five Below gets a large amount of goods imported from China, which could make tariffs a contributing factor to lower profits or the need to pass on higher costs to consumers.

The discount retailer already shared that net sales during the 2024 holiday period were $1.19 billion from Nov. 3 through Jan. 4, up 8.7% year-over-year.

Data from Placer.ai showed visits to Five Below stores up 13.8% year-over-year in November. That’s up 3.3% year-over-year in December and up 14.5% year-over-year in January.

With most of November and December reported, January could be a key catalyst for the fourth-quarter results.

Five Below's fourth quarter began on Nov. 3 and will include November, December and January.

The retailer's financial results come shortly after results from discount retailers Dollar General DG and Dollar Tree DLTR. Both of those retailers have stock that is down over 40% in the last year. Dollar General stock is positive by 7.6% year-to-date in 2025 with Dollar Tree stock down 14.8% year-to-date in 2025.

Price Action: Five stock is down 0.7% to $73.84 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $64.87 to $209.77. Five Below shares are down 25.5% year-to-date in 2025 and down 64.1% over the last year.

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