Knight-Swift Faces Pressure With Lack Of Freight Flows Amid Tariffs, Analyst Downgrades Stock

BofA Securities analyst Ken Hoexter downgraded the shares of Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc KNX on Tuesday from Buy to Neutral and lowered the price forecast from $66.00 to $46.00.

The revision reflects a reduced valuation multiple of 28x, down from 33x, slightly exceeding the company’s historical range of 14x-26x.

The stock currently trades at 26.4x the 2025 EPS estimate, which may face additional downward pressure as forecasts decline, said the analyst.

The analyst’s earnings estimates for KNX have been significantly reduced for the first quarter, second quarter, FY25, and FY26 by 35%, 20%, 17%, and 11% to $0.20, $0.38, $1.65, and $2.95, respectively, from $0.31, $0.48, $2.00, and $3.30.

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The cuts stem from early first-quarter weather disruptions, followed by weakened freight flows amid tariff concerns. 1Q25/2Q25 estimates now fall below the company’s and consensus targets.

Additionally, truckload spot rates have declined to $1.50 per mile, near breakeven for truckers, signaling broader industry challenges.

KNX is projected to shrink its truckload (TL) fleet by 1.5% sequentially in the first-quarter to 21,900 tractors, exceeding the previously expected 0.8% reduction.

Revenue per mile is anticipated to remain steady at $2.36, with only 1% year-over-year growth in 2025 due to a lack of new contract bid premiums and exposure to volatile spot rates.

KNX is experiencing challenges across its Less-Than-Truckload (LTL), Intermodal, and Logistics divisions. Lower demand is pressuring Intermodal volumes and bid season rates, while the Logistics segment faced early first-quarter struggles before stabilizing later in the quarter.

Weather-related costs are expected to impact LTL results, prompting an upward revision of the first-quarter LTL operating ratio target to 94.6% from 94.1%, concluded the analyst.

Price Action: KNX shares traded lower by 0.16% at $43.43 at last check Tuesday.

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