NICE Lowered Revenue Outlook But Bullish Analyst Sees AI Momentum And Strong Cash Flow

Rosenblatt analyst Catharine Trebnick maintained NICE Ltd NICE with a Buy rating and lowered the price forecast from $200 to $180 Thursday.

Trebnick lowered her price forecast due to reduced fiscal 2025 and 2026 revenue estimates, citing macroeconomic uncertainty, which could further delay multinational Contact Center as a Service (CCaaS) deployments.

The price target reflects ~3.4 times (from ~4 times) on the analyst’s revenue estimate of 7% Y/ Y in fiscal 2026.

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NICE stock is trading at 2.7 times EV/calendar 2026 sales, growing at 7% Y/Y and a slight premium to the CCaaS group average of 2.3 times, growing at 9% Y/Y.

Trebnick’s valuation is justified based on higher free cash flow assumptions (26% Y/Y versus the peer group of 19%). The analyst has decreased her fiscal 2025 revenue growth assumption to 6% below fiscal 2025 guidance (+7% growth).

Trebnick’s fiscal 2025 estimate has been revised to $2.91 billion (+6% growth) from $2.93 billion (+7% growth) and below the Street’s $2.91 billion (+7% growth).

Similarly, she has decreased her fiscal 2026 estimate to $3.12 billion (+7% growth) from $3.22 billion (+10% growth) and below the Street’s $3.12 billion (+7% growth).

Based on lower revenue, Trebnick’s adjusted operating income moves slightly lower to $909 million (31% margin), below the current Street estimate ($919 million).

For fiscal 2026, the analyst’s adjusted operating income is now $1.02 billion ( 32.6% margin), slightly above the Street estimate of $1.01 billion (32.3% margin).

Based on lower sales volume, Trebnick’s fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS is $12.13 (down from $12.14), below the Street estimate of $12.18.

Looking ahead to fiscal 2026 and lower revenue growth of 7%, the analyst’s adjusted EPS moves to $13.30 (versus the Street estimate of $13.36).

Trebnick noted that the company benefits from AI adoption in CCaaS and is a share donor from Avaya in the large enterprise segment.

Price Action: NICE stock closed higher by 2.06% at $154.52 on Thursday.

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