Ahead Of Uber Earnings, Analyst Raises Forecast

BofA Securities analyst Justin Post maintained a Buy rating on Uber Technologies, Inc UBER with a price target of $96, up from $95 on Sunday.

Uber will report its quarterly earnings results on May 7 before the market opens.

For the first quarter, Post’s bookings and revenue estimates were $43.5 billion, and $11.73 billion were higher than the Street estimates of $42.9 billion and $11.62 billion.

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The analysts’ EBITDA estimate of $1.89 billion was higher than Street’s estimate of $1.84 billion. He noted that Instacart’s results and stable growth outlook were positive for Uber Delivery in the U.S.

For Mobility, Post projected bookings growth of 21% ex-foreign-exchange, which is more of a deceleration than BAC card data, which indicates Online Transit spend was stable sequentially.

Post remained constructive on New Verticals’ contribution to growth as Uber invests into new customers and products like Uber Teen or autonomous vehicles.

However, the analyst recently flagged some softer TSA data on U.S. airport activity, so U.S. travel-related trips on Uber could see some modest near-term pressure.

Post also noted that U.S. Rideshare industry pricing data from Bloomberg has pointed to a deceleration in Uber ride pricing. The analyst projected stable 18% ex-foreign exchange growth for Delivery, while BAC card data suggests Online Delivery growth decelerated 1 point versus the fourth quarter.

He is constructive on Uber’s Grocery & Retail segment, which is estimated to add 2 points to growth in the first quarter as Uber signs deals with brands previously reluctant to partner with 3P apps.

Post expects the tone on autonomous vehicles to be very constructive. Waymos launched exclusively on the Uber app in Austin at the beginning of March. Uber handles matching and fleet management services, while Waymo operates in-car software and roadside assistance.

Early data coming out of Austin and Alphabet Inc GOOG GOOGL Google’s recent earnings call comments suggest the ramp is going well, but noted that Uber may also be leaning into tools to boost autonomous vehicle adoption.

Post also expects Uber to highlight its recent partnership with Volkswagen VWAGY to deploy autonomous vehicles across multiple cities, starting in Los Angeles. Volkswagen’s AV, “ID. Buzz,” will begin testing in late 2025, with plans to offer rides to the public on Uber in 2026.

The partnership is Uber’s first major auto OEM partner, which can provide large-scale manufacturing capability that goes far beyond software-focused partners.

On Tesla Inc’s TSLA first-quarter earnings call, CEO Elon Musk reiterated his expectation that the company will begin fully autonomous paid rides in June in Austin. Longer-term, Post expects future Tesla launches to drive more Auto OEM AV development activity across the board and new partnerships with Uber.

Post projected second-quarter bookings of $47.65 billion (versus Street estimate of $45.79 billion) and revenue of $12.94 billion (versus Street estimate of $12.34 billion).

Price Actions: UBER stock closed higher by 1.36% to $85.43 on Monday.

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