Archer Aviation's Defense Push, Piloted Flight To Boost Stock: Analysts

Archer Aviation Inc. ACHR shares are surging on Tuesday following the company’s better-than-expected first-quarter results, which were reported on Monday.

The company reported a loss of 17 cents per share, beating analyst estimates of 28 cents loss per share.

Needham analyst Chris Pierce reiterated a Buy rating and maintained a price forecast of $13 post Q1 results.

The analyst notes that the company is making steady progress across several areas. A piloted flight is expected soon, and preparations for its first commercial launch in the UAE are underway. The company is benefiting from favorable regulatory developments, strategic partnerships, and early customer interest – all of which point to strong global demand and promising long-term potential, the analyst adds.

Also Read: Can Archer Aviation Stick The Landing After Q1 Earnings? Bulls Say It’s Cleared For Takeoff

Pierce adds that while near-term revenue visibility is limited due to modest initial deployments dependent on local partners and regulators, the company’s long-term outlook remains positive; ACHR’s aircraft offers advantages over existing options in a supply-constrained market.

The analyst revised 2025 EBITDA estimates to $460 million from $418 million.

HC Wainwright & Co. analyst Amit Dayal also reiterated a Buy rating and maintained a price forecast of $12.50.

The analyst writes that, as expected, the company did not generate any quarterly revenues.

The analyst notes that management reported that ground, transition, and technical tests are complete, with piloted flights expected to begin within days.

The analyst believes this progress is crucial for delivering at least one aircraft to the UAE this summer for regional testing.

Dayal anticipates that advancements in Archer’s aviation software initiatives with Palantir Technologies, Inc. PLTR will unlock new revenue streams that have not yet been included in their forecasts.

The analyst also believes regulatory support for the eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) market remains strong. By 2030 and beyond, the analyst projects Archer’s consistent annual eVTOL manufacturing to exceed 300 units per year, reaching a cumulative production of over 3,000 eVTOLs between 2034 and 2036.

Dayal estimates revenue of around $18 million in 2025, over $42 million in 2026, and around $1 billion by 2028.

JP Morgan analyst Bill Peterson maintained a Neutral rating with a price forecast of $9. This rating reflects a cautious stance due to uncertainties surrounding FAA certification timelines and the challenges facing the eVTOL industry.

The analyst highlighted key earnings takeaways: an imminent piloted flight, increased defense investment, a growing hybrid/defense strategy, and a balanced production ramp-up.

Given FAA certification delays, strong government support for defense, and uncertain consumer adoption, Peterson expects Archer to focus more on the defense sector.

With multiple aircraft in assembly in California and Georgia, the analyst forecasts low production volumes through 2026, followed by a modest ramp-up from 2027 as efficiency improves.

Price Action: ACHR shares are up 21.2% to $11.00 at the last check on Tuesday.

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